[0762]

I mentioned Chapman's reference to the Velvet Revolution contrasting Scotindy with the Slovak and Czech Rep's "Velvet Divorce" 1993. Looking more closely at that historic event, one can find that in the post indy years the Czech Republic govt substituted its exports and imports away from the Slovak Republic; the Slovak Rep did the same, substituting its exports and imports away from the Czech Rep, both in favour of Germany. For the economically smaller state, the Slovak Rep quite quickly substituted away from what was its much larger, more significant, export partner to what was a much smaller partner i.e. the Slovak Rep's exports to Germany were nearly three times less than to the Czech Rep in 1993, but as of 2019, the Slovak Rep's exports to Germany were nearly two times greater than to the Czech Rep. While the majority of Scotland's exports is with the rest of the UK, exports to the EU grew by an average of 4% pa over the last five years. Since 2010, growth to the EU outpaced growth to the rest of the world and the rest of the UK by a significant margin. Scotland is not only becoming more economically integrated with the EU but seemingly also with non-EU partners. Our historic economic performance has been strong, which bodes well for a small, open and independent Scotland. With modest population growth alongside good GDP growth, supported by stable participation in international trade, it seems Scotland is in a far better initial condition than either the Czech or Slovak republics, and can therefore expect similar, if not better, post independence outcomes.