[drewks]

It's a fair assessment tidy!

10 wins and 8-10 draws seems just about fine to keep us up, So that leaves another 5 wins and 3-5 draws left.

When we have 17 games left to play, and 8 of those are:

Arsenal
Chelsea
Man united
Liverpool
Tottenham
Southampton
Everton (away)
Newcastle (away)

I'd say at a push all of those games are potentially write offs - maybe the odd draw. It leaves us with 9 games to get 5 wins and 1-2 draws (thats worse case we draw 2 of the above 8 and lose 6)

It just makes those games against those around us, huge. We can only afford to lose 2 out of 9 at an absolute maximum. Even if we go and draw against Tottenham, Everton, and United, it means nothing if we then go and lose to a Burnley. or Leicester.

I am averagely confident we will stay up - because there is 3 worse teams than us, but I'd hate to be a Newcastle of a few seasons ago, and think we should have enough, and end up back in the champ. 2 wins in 13 (BEFORE HULL!) needs to drastically improve, and we cannot afford for it not to soon!

All very true; however, the supporters of about 8 or 9 other teams will be thinking the same, and wondering where the points will be coming from.
In a nutshell, your last line says it all Luke, and IMO we've given ourselves EVERY chance of improvement by appointing TP!