I thought it might be instructive to investigate whether actual figures back up my own feelings that we are currently on track for relegation, having recruited the wrong type of players and created a squad which may lack the capacity to survive.
Last season the two relegated sides went down having scored 54 and 47 goals respectively and they conceded 87 and 75. In a very small sample of games, which does mean one decent game can change the position radically we are on course for 36 goals scored and 81 conceded. That looks bad doesn't it?
So being particularly worried by our inability to score I decided to check out our potential goal power. Our players' career records do tend to illustrate the lack of scores on doors. Over to George Dawes .....
Jordan Flores 32 games - 3 goals
Jordan Sinnott 76 games - 9 goals (and many of the games were non-league)
Louis Reed 44 games - 0 goals (and didn't score internationally for England either)
Robbie Weir 243 games - 10 goals (so he's a couple a season man really)
Jak McCourt 40 games - 1 goal
Reece Mitchell 28 games - 2 goals
Diego de Girolamo 25 games - 5 goals (but he has also played as a striker)
Connor Dimaio 34 games - 1 goal (0 in 14 in age group internationals)
Andy Kellett 32 games - 3 goals
Joe Rowley 7 games - 1 goal
Charlie Wakefield 1 game - 0 goals
Add in wing backs:-
Bradley Barry - 59 games - 1 goal
Jerome Binnom-Williams - 62 games- 2 goals ( didn't score internationally either)
Matthew Briggs - 97 games - 1 goal (in 31 youth/internationals also scored 1)
My conclusion is that on past performance we cannot expect many goals from anywhere but our forwards. In fact Hird, Evatt and Wiseman probably pack as much goal-punch as any of our midfielders.
The scores on the doors for our forwards certainly don't suggest they are hopeless, but to me they do indicate they won't be able to cover for a lack of goal-power elsewhere on the park:-
Chris O'Grady - 462 games - 95 goals (at the most favourable interpretation). Just divide by 10 to work out we can expect 9 or 10 for the full season.
Gozie Ugwu - 169 games - 43 goals (suggests 10 for the season, I always said he was likely to be a 10-15 man).
The one player we have on the books who has demonstrated a once-phenomenal ability to score is Kristian Dennis. He was at about a goal a game over a decent period for Curzon Ashton ......... but as we know his return so far in league football is lower.
The combination of Ugwu and O'Grady with Dennis on the pitch has so far looked less than threatening but taking into account the likely lack of goals from elsewhere we do probably need all three on the pitch and perhaps returning 10 each for the big men and more than that for Kristian to take the team to 50 goals.
Last season Accrington were mid-table having scored 60 goals.
Unfortunately a team impotent of goal threat puts pressure on its own defence. If we continue to concede at our current rate that is clearly relegation form. Over every 5 game period conceding 7 would be safe - so that would be say, 3,2,1,1,0. Once you are regularly shipping 2 or 3 very week you are drowning.
Just at this moment it seems to me that we lack the abilities to create enough goals, to score enough goals and to stop goals against. And that is about the whole of football as far I can see. Our desperate need is for one or two of our players to take a huge step forward as regards scoring goals. Coming from deeper Jordan Sinnott and Diego de Girolamo seem most likely to net alongside perhaps Jordan Flores. Up front Gozie did get 19 in all competitions in the Bananarama last time, and both Delial Brewster and Ricky German have suggested at lower levels that they might be capable of the same at league level .......... It would be unreasonable to expect Chris O'Grady to score a fistful even though he's now playing at a lower level.
Or is there another story? Is the arithmetic a liar?
Last season the two relegated sides went down having scored 54 and 47 goals respectively and they conceded 87 and 75. In a very small sample of games, which does mean one decent game can change the position radically we are on course for 36 goals scored and 81 conceded. That looks bad doesn't it?
So being particularly worried by our inability to score I decided to check out our potential goal power. Our players' career records do tend to illustrate the lack of scores on doors. Over to George Dawes .....
Jordan Flores 32 games - 3 goals
Jordan Sinnott 76 games - 9 goals (and many of the games were non-league)
Louis Reed 44 games - 0 goals (and didn't score internationally for England either)
Robbie Weir 243 games - 10 goals (so he's a couple a season man really)
Jak McCourt 40 games - 1 goal
Reece Mitchell 28 games - 2 goals
Diego de Girolamo 25 games - 5 goals (but he has also played as a striker)
Connor Dimaio 34 games - 1 goal (0 in 14 in age group internationals)
Andy Kellett 32 games - 3 goals
Joe Rowley 7 games - 1 goal
Charlie Wakefield 1 game - 0 goals
Add in wing backs:-
Bradley Barry - 59 games - 1 goal
Jerome Binnom-Williams - 62 games- 2 goals ( didn't score internationally either)
Matthew Briggs - 97 games - 1 goal (in 31 youth/internationals also scored 1)
My conclusion is that on past performance we cannot expect many goals from anywhere but our forwards. In fact Hird, Evatt and Wiseman probably pack as much goal-punch as any of our midfielders.
The scores on the doors for our forwards certainly don't suggest they are hopeless, but to me they do indicate they won't be able to cover for a lack of goal-power elsewhere on the park:-
Chris O'Grady - 462 games - 95 goals (at the most favourable interpretation). Just divide by 10 to work out we can expect 9 or 10 for the full season.
Gozie Ugwu - 169 games - 43 goals (suggests 10 for the season, I always said he was likely to be a 10-15 man).
The one player we have on the books who has demonstrated a once-phenomenal ability to score is Kristian Dennis. He was at about a goal a game over a decent period for Curzon Ashton ......... but as we know his return so far in league football is lower.
The combination of Ugwu and O'Grady with Dennis on the pitch has so far looked less than threatening but taking into account the likely lack of goals from elsewhere we do probably need all three on the pitch and perhaps returning 10 each for the big men and more than that for Kristian to take the team to 50 goals.
Last season Accrington were mid-table having scored 60 goals.
Unfortunately a team impotent of goal threat puts pressure on its own defence. If we continue to concede at our current rate that is clearly relegation form. Over every 5 game period conceding 7 would be safe - so that would be say, 3,2,1,1,0. Once you are regularly shipping 2 or 3 very week you are drowning.
Just at this moment it seems to me that we lack the abilities to create enough goals, to score enough goals and to stop goals against. And that is about the whole of football as far I can see. Our desperate need is for one or two of our players to take a huge step forward as regards scoring goals. Coming from deeper Jordan Sinnott and Diego de Girolamo seem most likely to net alongside perhaps Jordan Flores. Up front Gozie did get 19 in all competitions in the Bananarama last time, and both Delial Brewster and Ricky German have suggested at lower levels that they might be capable of the same at league level .......... It would be unreasonable to expect Chris O'Grady to score a fistful even though he's now playing at a lower level.
Or is there another story? Is the arithmetic a liar?