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+----- Thread: Is the arithmetic a liar? (/showthread.php?tid=5715)
Is the arithmetic a liar? - Devongone - 07-09-2017
I thought it might be instructive to investigate whether actual figures back up my own feelings that we are currently on track for relegation, having recruited the wrong type of players and created a squad which may lack the capacity to survive.
Last season the two relegated sides went down having scored 54 and 47 goals respectively and they conceded 87 and 75. In a very small sample of games, which does mean one decent game can change the position radically we are on course for 36 goals scored and 81 conceded. That looks bad doesn't it?
So being particularly worried by our inability to score I decided to check out our potential goal power. Our players' career records do tend to illustrate the lack of scores on doors. Over to George Dawes .....
Jordan Flores 32 games - 3 goals
Jordan Sinnott 76 games - 9 goals (and many of the games were non-league)
Louis Reed 44 games - 0 goals (and didn't score internationally for England either)
Robbie Weir 243 games - 10 goals (so he's a couple a season man really)
Jak McCourt 40 games - 1 goal
Reece Mitchell 28 games - 2 goals
Diego de Girolamo 25 games - 5 goals (but he has also played as a striker)
Connor Dimaio 34 games - 1 goal (0 in 14 in age group internationals)
Andy Kellett 32 games - 3 goals
Joe Rowley 7 games - 1 goal
Charlie Wakefield 1 game - 0 goals
Add in wing backs:-
Bradley Barry - 59 games - 1 goal
Jerome Binnom-Williams - 62 games- 2 goals ( didn't score internationally either)
Matthew Briggs - 97 games - 1 goal (in 31 youth/internationals also scored 1)
My conclusion is that on past performance we cannot expect many goals from anywhere but our forwards. In fact Hird, Evatt and Wiseman probably pack as much goal-punch as any of our midfielders.
The scores on the doors for our forwards certainly don't suggest they are hopeless, but to me they do indicate they won't be able to cover for a lack of goal-power elsewhere on the park:-
Chris O'Grady - 462 games - 95 goals (at the most favourable interpretation). Just divide by 10 to work out we can expect 9 or 10 for the full season.
Gozie Ugwu - 169 games - 43 goals (suggests 10 for the season, I always said he was likely to be a 10-15 man).
The one player we have on the books who has demonstrated a once-phenomenal ability to score is Kristian Dennis. He was at about a goal a game over a decent period for Curzon Ashton ......... but as we know his return so far in league football is lower.
The combination of Ugwu and O'Grady with Dennis on the pitch has so far looked less than threatening but taking into account the likely lack of goals from elsewhere we do probably need all three on the pitch and perhaps returning 10 each for the big men and more than that for Kristian to take the team to 50 goals.
Last season Accrington were mid-table having scored 60 goals.
Unfortunately a team impotent of goal threat puts pressure on its own defence. If we continue to concede at our current rate that is clearly relegation form. Over every 5 game period conceding 7 would be safe - so that would be say, 3,2,1,1,0. Once you are regularly shipping 2 or 3 very week you are drowning.
Just at this moment it seems to me that we lack the abilities to create enough goals, to score enough goals and to stop goals against. And that is about the whole of football as far I can see. Our desperate need is for one or two of our players to take a huge step forward as regards scoring goals. Coming from deeper Jordan Sinnott and Diego de Girolamo seem most likely to net alongside perhaps Jordan Flores. Up front Gozie did get 19 in all competitions in the Bananarama last time, and both Delial Brewster and Ricky German have suggested at lower levels that they might be capable of the same at league level .......... It would be unreasonable to expect Chris O'Grady to score a fistful even though he's now playing at a lower level.
Or is there another story? Is the arithmetic a liar?
RE: Is the arithmetic a liar? - Dancingwilldoit - 07-09-2017
Interesting reading Dev.
Maybe you should email it to GC and ask him why we have loaned out players that could just possibly make a difference.
If you play your top goal scorer as a winger you automatically reduce his goal scoring ability so Dennis will be lucky to get any more than 10-12 out there. Put him in the middle of the park and he could be 15+ but that's not the GC way. You don't play them in their best position, you play them anywhere you want to but there.
RE: Is the arithmetic a liar? - bluepooch - 07-09-2017
Agree about the Dennis thing ,he is our most potent threat so should be involved in the cutting edge of the team.
I feel Rowleys got goals in him and so has Sinnott and Geronimo.
Its not unreasonable to see the following goals tally surely and this is a conservative estimate;
Dennis -15
O Grady -10
Ugwu -10
Sinnott -8
Geronimo- 8
Rowley - 8
Rest of team -10
69 goals in total,not normally automatic promotion total I agree but it depends how we are defensively.
RE: Is the arithmetic a liar? - Devongone - 08-09-2017
Pooch, your optimism knows no bounds. You are expecting 6 players to equal or sometimes massively exceed anything they've ever shown.
Joe Rowley may become our best-ever player but he wasn't a big scorer even with the Juniors. Jordan Sinnott only managed to play 10 games last season and wasn't in our starting eleven on Saturday. Diego has never quite been able to put fitness issues behind him following the cruciate. Will Gozie, CO'G and Kristian be together often enough to reach those totals?
I'd forgotten Connor Dimaio and have added him, but though I think he has a goal in him he's only on 1 so far.
As it seems we'll play Lou Reed whenever he's fit we need him to do something he's never done before - SCORE. Not only is he not much good to us if he's not aiming for 5 this season, he's also not going to have much of a career at Championship level and above. Even a deep midfielder like Kante carries the threat of the occasional goal when he pushes forward. Lou has to start scoring and not on The Wild Side, like the real Lou.
The very noticeable thing when I started looking at our players' records is that once you take out the very experienced core of Wiseman, Evatt, Hird, Weir and O'Grady, all of whom are having questions asked about their performance, we have a whole load of players with way less than two full seasons of games behind them. So, like Pooch, you can either view this as leaving massive scope for improvement, or you could sit with me and be worried to death that we are expecting something very few of these lads have proved they can do at any level.
One other thing I thought I'd mention - I seem to remember Laurence Maguire featuring pretty regularly amongst the goalscorers at lower levels. I'm wondering if enthusiastic young defenders like him and Zak Jules might pose a real threat at dead ball situations. Sometimes too much experience can lead to too little ambition and enthusiasm when that ball is swinging into the area ......... and the keeper doesn't quite know whether to come out or stay on his line ..... A lot of goals come from dead ball situations, which makes me wonder why with O'Grady and Ugwu and a couple of big defenders to throw forward we aren't causing the opposition more problems.
RE: Is the arithmetic a liar? - Dancingwilldoit - 09-09-2017
Just for the record German starts and scores for Alfrteton and Dan Jones has scored for Notts. In the meantime we are thrashing Crewewewe.
By the way Dan Jones was that attacking quick Left Back we used to have.
RE: Is the arithmetic a liar? - Devongone - 11-09-2017
Thank **** for Ricky getting a start at last. I think he is the type that really needs to start. Why I first liked him was he made himself available, midfield played up to him, he'd lay the ball off, sometimes out wide and often end up on the end of what was created. He knew how creating and scoring goals worked. It wasn't just him scoring that attracted me, it was that our Juniors play seemed to revolve around him and when he wasn't there ...... well they were just powder puff.
He got an 8 for his performance and of course Alfreton scored 4. It does seem if you start Ricky German you are in with a chance of a bag full of goals. I wonder why it is so hard to select him if you are a football manager, what does he do to put you off? Well I suppose sending him off to another team doesn't help ....
Dylan Parkin made a vital mistake in goal for Ossett by the way.
Dorel kept a clean sheet for Torquay and played well.