02-03-2018, 22:03
Grimsby have appointed a new manager.This almost certainly means their bad run will come to an end and they will start winning again.I was hoping they were going to leave the caretaker in charge for a few more games.
More Bad News
"Jolley has replaced Russell Slade, who was fired with Town 17th in League Two.
The 40-year-old has been without a job since leaving his role as manager of Swedish side Eskilstuna following their relegation from the top division.
Jolley worked in investment banking before taking on football coaching roles with clubs including Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest and Crewe.
He joined Burnley as youth-team coach in 2014, leaving to take charge of Eskilstuna in June 2017 with the team winless and bottom of the Allsvenskan.
Eskilstuna won four of their 19 games under Jolley but still finished bottom of the table."
Which bit of this sounds like bad news to you Blue?
There's plenty of evidence that teams without a manager tend to to do quite well. There's actually very little evidence for the new manager effect. It's just that we remember it when a new manager comes in and a team seems to improve. GC's high point for us was a 0-0 draw in his first game ...........
In Sweden Eskilstuna appointed Jolley because they were struggling. He was supposed to keep them up. He didn't exactly do a Roy Hodgson did he? Maybe he'll land the big tuna for Grimsby, maybe the EU quotas will do for him.
"Jolley left his roles at Stirling & Falkirk in 2009. He was convicted of unknowingly having sex with a 15-year-old girl after a night out at a Stirling nightclub with friends.[3] It was confirmed in court that the girl and her friends had lied to him about her age, telling him that she was 19 years old, and he was subsequently cleared by the UK Government and both the English Football Association and the Scottish Football Association to continue all football coaching activity in late 2009."
The 40-year-old has been without a job since leaving his role as manager of Swedish side Eskilstuna following their relegation from the top division.
Jolley worked in investment banking before taking on football coaching roles with clubs including Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest and Crewe.
He joined Burnley as youth-team coach in 2014, leaving to take charge of Eskilstuna in June 2017 with the team winless and bottom of the Allsvenskan.
Eskilstuna won four of their 19 games under Jolley but still finished bottom of the table."
Which bit of this sounds like bad news to you Blue?
There's plenty of evidence that teams without a manager tend to to do quite well. There's actually very little evidence for the new manager effect. It's just that we remember it when a new manager comes in and a team seems to improve. GC's high point for us was a 0-0 draw in his first game ...........
In Sweden Eskilstuna appointed Jolley because they were struggling. He was supposed to keep them up. He didn't exactly do a Roy Hodgson did he? Maybe he'll land the big tuna for Grimsby, maybe the EU quotas will do for him.
"Jolley left his roles at Stirling & Falkirk in 2009. He was convicted of unknowingly having sex with a 15-year-old girl after a night out at a Stirling nightclub with friends.[3] It was confirmed in court that the girl and her friends had lied to him about her age, telling him that she was 19 years old, and he was subsequently cleared by the UK Government and both the English Football Association and the Scottish Football Association to continue all football coaching activity in late 2009."
Maybe its just my imagination, and i'd like someone to check out examples if they can be arsed, If a change of manager results in an improvement in form say,between the 10 games before the manager is sacked and the 10 games after the new manager comes in .probably exclude the caretaker period in between.
Here's one I made earlier , the 10 games before GC left (ive included cups but giving 3 points for a win) were 1-2-7 = 5 points.The first 10 games of JL reign was 3-2-5 = 11 points.
If the Banker manages to glean 11 points from Grim-bys last 10 games as Jack did in his first 10 with us and we regarded Jacks start as inauspicious and nothing special , then they will finish on 47 which means we have to achieve minimum 17 points from our last 12 .Can we really do that ?.
We need to hope the Banker has a disastrous time similar to the level of GC's record.
Here's one I made earlier , the 10 games before GC left (ive included cups but giving 3 points for a win) were 1-2-7 = 5 points.The first 10 games of JL reign was 3-2-5 = 11 points.
If the Banker manages to glean 11 points from Grim-bys last 10 games as Jack did in his first 10 with us and we regarded Jacks start as inauspicious and nothing special , then they will finish on 47 which means we have to achieve minimum 17 points from our last 12 .Can we really do that ?.
We need to hope the Banker has a disastrous time similar to the level of GC's record.
There's loads of stuff about the new-manager effect - but it's where and when you decide to stop measuring the effect and how you decide what is down to the new manager makes it unscientific and unreliable. Danny Wilson whopped seven past Shrewsbury ............
Grimsby have been on a bad run. If they had done nothing, with 36 points from 36 games, they could've expected eventually to revert to their normal level of gaining points ie 1 point a game. End of season on 46 then. 46 might well be enough to do for us. We'd have to get 17 more points. That's win 5 draw 2 lose 5. If Grimsby stayed up because we didn't achieve that, would it be the new manager effect ........ or would we have witnessed nothing happening at all? I think nothing.
If he keeps them up, he'll start next season. Like GC he'll recruit for it. If these ten games are misleading as to his ability, Grimsby are condemning themselves to struggle again. I think they should have stuck by Slade till the end of the season, but by making it obvious he was going to get the push they contributed to the downward spiral and helped create the very problem they now hope their new accidental-little-girl-lover will solve.
For us to stay up the new man has to contribute to Grimsby's current slide and accelerate it. We need them to come up with something like win 1 draw 2 and lose 7 to enable us to stay up on 42 points which represents us winning 4 and losing 8, just about at the top end of our current range of achievement. And that assumes Barnet won't improve either!
Grimsby have been on a bad run. If they had done nothing, with 36 points from 36 games, they could've expected eventually to revert to their normal level of gaining points ie 1 point a game. End of season on 46 then. 46 might well be enough to do for us. We'd have to get 17 more points. That's win 5 draw 2 lose 5. If Grimsby stayed up because we didn't achieve that, would it be the new manager effect ........ or would we have witnessed nothing happening at all? I think nothing.
If he keeps them up, he'll start next season. Like GC he'll recruit for it. If these ten games are misleading as to his ability, Grimsby are condemning themselves to struggle again. I think they should have stuck by Slade till the end of the season, but by making it obvious he was going to get the push they contributed to the downward spiral and helped create the very problem they now hope their new accidental-little-girl-lover will solve.
For us to stay up the new man has to contribute to Grimsby's current slide and accelerate it. We need them to come up with something like win 1 draw 2 and lose 7 to enable us to stay up on 42 points which represents us winning 4 and losing 8, just about at the top end of our current range of achievement. And that assumes Barnet won't improve either!
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