15-12-2015, 01:48
As it's a boring Monday night, here's a quick glance at the threshold throughout the 20-team Prem era. For each year I'm taking the finishing points and goal difference of the club in 18th place, i.e. the team you have to stay ahead of if you're already outside the relegation zone (as we are).
1996: 38 pts, -25
1997: 40 pts, -18
1998: 40 pts, -20
1999: 36 pts, -15
2000: 33 pts, -28
2001: 34 pts, -24
2002: 36 pts, -23
2003: 42 pts, -17
2004: 33 pts, -17
2005: 33 pts, -21
2006: 34 pts, -22
2007: 38 pts, -23
2008: 36 pts, -25
2009: 34 pts, -19
2010: 30 pts, -40
2011: 39 pts, -21
2012: 36 pts, -31
2013: 36 pts, -26
2014: 33 pts, -34
2015: 35 pts, -18
Some quick conclusions:
1. The rule of thumb of needing roughly a point per game is more or less spot on.
2. 36 points with a decent goal difference (no worse than -20, ideally around -15 or better) would have seen you safe in 14 out of 20 seasons overall (70%), and 13 out of 16 since the millennium (81%).
3. The team who concedes the most goals over the course of the season always ends up relegated, and this has been the case ever since Crystal Palace survived in the old First Division in 1990 despite conceding 66 goals. (Interestingly, at this moment in time the two joint leakiest teams in the division are Newcastle and Bournemouth - both outside the drop zone - with Villa and Sunderland tied just behind them).
4. This is probably a no-brainer, but broadly speaking, in seasons when the relegation threshold creeps higher than usual, there's very little difference between the mid-table sides and the strugglers, and a lot of teams even quite high up the league don't reach mathematical safety till the last couple of weeks. It's in seasons when a clear gap opens up between the dogfight and mid-table that the threshold tends to be lower than usual.
Again, I'll emphasise that the figures above are the stats for teams finishing 18th; the ones you have to stay ahead of to survive if you're already outside the drop zone. Our fishy friends down the road have to better the team in 17th place, and that's a tougher set of figures.
1996: 38 pts, -25
1997: 40 pts, -18
1998: 40 pts, -20
1999: 36 pts, -15
2000: 33 pts, -28
2001: 34 pts, -24
2002: 36 pts, -23
2003: 42 pts, -17
2004: 33 pts, -17
2005: 33 pts, -21
2006: 34 pts, -22
2007: 38 pts, -23
2008: 36 pts, -25
2009: 34 pts, -19
2010: 30 pts, -40
2011: 39 pts, -21
2012: 36 pts, -31
2013: 36 pts, -26
2014: 33 pts, -34
2015: 35 pts, -18
Some quick conclusions:
1. The rule of thumb of needing roughly a point per game is more or less spot on.
2. 36 points with a decent goal difference (no worse than -20, ideally around -15 or better) would have seen you safe in 14 out of 20 seasons overall (70%), and 13 out of 16 since the millennium (81%).
3. The team who concedes the most goals over the course of the season always ends up relegated, and this has been the case ever since Crystal Palace survived in the old First Division in 1990 despite conceding 66 goals. (Interestingly, at this moment in time the two joint leakiest teams in the division are Newcastle and Bournemouth - both outside the drop zone - with Villa and Sunderland tied just behind them).
4. This is probably a no-brainer, but broadly speaking, in seasons when the relegation threshold creeps higher than usual, there's very little difference between the mid-table sides and the strugglers, and a lot of teams even quite high up the league don't reach mathematical safety till the last couple of weeks. It's in seasons when a clear gap opens up between the dogfight and mid-table that the threshold tends to be lower than usual.
Again, I'll emphasise that the figures above are the stats for teams finishing 18th; the ones you have to stay ahead of to survive if you're already outside the drop zone. Our fishy friends down the road have to better the team in 17th place, and that's a tougher set of figures.
"I would rather spend a holiday in Tuscany than in the Black Country, but if I were compelled to choose between living in West Bromwich or Florence, I should make straight for West Bromwich." - J.B. Priestley