23-10-2023, 19:25
(This post was last modified: 23-10-2023, 19:30 by theo_luddite.)
My take on it is this. You don't qualify from any Group for the finals by hiding the way you play and any team that qualifies can throw up the odd surprise, but they don't happen often. Some of these may well bite me on the arse.
Let's take this Group by Group, though not everything is settled yet.
Group A = Spain and Scotland qualified (15pts each, 1 game to play) - we took Scotland to the cleaners in a friendly, if the word exists in games between Scotland and England. Doesn't mean we'd do the same to Spain. Souness tried to be critical of some England players he'd barely seen before the game but held his hands up and called them "the real deal" after and didn't really rate Scotland at all.
Group B = France have won at a canter and will be another one to beat. Netherlands or Greece for the other quallfying spot. Netherlands have Ireland and Gibraltar having just beaten Greece. Greece play France. They'll be hoping for a kind play-off draw, if they have enough points. We shouldn't worry about either like we once did.
Group C = We're already there with Malta and North Macedonia still to play. A few years ago they would have been must wins. Italy still have the North Mac's and Ukraine to play for 2nd place. Either way we've only dropped points to Ukraine and whoever finishes 3rd will also be looking for a play-off spot. Beating Italy twice doesn't mean they won't turn up in Germany with a slightly different way of kicking their opponents off the park. They have previous.
Group D = Turkey qualified. Wales play Armenia (outside shout of 2nd) and Turkey. Croatia play Latvia and Armenia. Again, one will qualify another will be grasping for a play-off spot. The Welsh can get fired up for a game against England most times but a soggy Saturday in Armenia might be another matter. Really, we should handle anyone from this group.
Group E = Most open group of the lot with only the Faroe Islands totally out of it. Albania (13) currently top with Modova (9) and Faroe Islands to play should qualify 2nd at least. The Czechs (11) play Poland (10) away in a must win for the Poles in their last game and then Moldova. Moldova likely need to win both their's to upset the apple cart. Another group that shouldn't throw up a side that would concern us.
Group F = Belgium and Austria qualified, Sweden not even a close 3rd. You'd say a fit Belgian squad should give us something to think about, you might not say that about Austria. Both have a game to play and it's not against each other.
Group G = Hungary qualified and Serbia all but qualified with only a piss poor Bulgaria to get a point from. Montenegro might have a sniff at a quailfier but they need points and have to play Lithuania and Hungary. Another group that is of little concern.
Group H = Slovenia and Denmark already all but qualified but they have to play each other. Then Denmark get Norn Iron whist Slovenia get Khazakstan. We might have to be careful if either are in our Group, they've thrown up the odd daft result in the past, especially Denmark. With Khazakstan maybe a surprise contender for a play-off spot, Finland maybe just a good outside bet as they've got Norn Iron and Andorra to play, so might sneak that play-off spot. They might both get one to be honest.
Group I = Romania and Switzerland already qualified with a game to go. Israel will be looking for a play-off spot with the Swiss and Andorra still to play against. No real sweat here either.
Group J = Portugal have won every game, so will be a real threat. Slovakia only need a point against Iceland whilst Iceland need the win. Even then they have to go to Portugal and win whilst Slovaki play Boznia H while Luxembourg play Boznia H and pointless Leichenstein. Could get 2 in the play-off's from this lot too. Portugal are the only one's to worry about though.
Germany = the hosts. Not been tearing up trees in recent WC's and Euro's but they are on their own patch. Ignore them at your peril.
So, Portugal, France, Germany, Belgium the main threats, with Italy, Denmark, Slovenia as major banana skins.
The Taffs and the Jocks will be up for it if we meet but I doubt have the quality of previous tournaments, the Taffs without Bale in particular.
Many of the ESTC would moan about any manager Wakey. Few could or would provide the name of a better manager to replace Southgate and it would only take two defeats or a draw against someone we "should be hammering" for them to moan about him too. If we were winning every game 5-1 they'd moan about the one we let in or the other 2-3 chances we missed.
Let's take this Group by Group, though not everything is settled yet.
Group A = Spain and Scotland qualified (15pts each, 1 game to play) - we took Scotland to the cleaners in a friendly, if the word exists in games between Scotland and England. Doesn't mean we'd do the same to Spain. Souness tried to be critical of some England players he'd barely seen before the game but held his hands up and called them "the real deal" after and didn't really rate Scotland at all.
Group B = France have won at a canter and will be another one to beat. Netherlands or Greece for the other quallfying spot. Netherlands have Ireland and Gibraltar having just beaten Greece. Greece play France. They'll be hoping for a kind play-off draw, if they have enough points. We shouldn't worry about either like we once did.
Group C = We're already there with Malta and North Macedonia still to play. A few years ago they would have been must wins. Italy still have the North Mac's and Ukraine to play for 2nd place. Either way we've only dropped points to Ukraine and whoever finishes 3rd will also be looking for a play-off spot. Beating Italy twice doesn't mean they won't turn up in Germany with a slightly different way of kicking their opponents off the park. They have previous.
Group D = Turkey qualified. Wales play Armenia (outside shout of 2nd) and Turkey. Croatia play Latvia and Armenia. Again, one will qualify another will be grasping for a play-off spot. The Welsh can get fired up for a game against England most times but a soggy Saturday in Armenia might be another matter. Really, we should handle anyone from this group.
Group E = Most open group of the lot with only the Faroe Islands totally out of it. Albania (13) currently top with Modova (9) and Faroe Islands to play should qualify 2nd at least. The Czechs (11) play Poland (10) away in a must win for the Poles in their last game and then Moldova. Moldova likely need to win both their's to upset the apple cart. Another group that shouldn't throw up a side that would concern us.
Group F = Belgium and Austria qualified, Sweden not even a close 3rd. You'd say a fit Belgian squad should give us something to think about, you might not say that about Austria. Both have a game to play and it's not against each other.
Group G = Hungary qualified and Serbia all but qualified with only a piss poor Bulgaria to get a point from. Montenegro might have a sniff at a quailfier but they need points and have to play Lithuania and Hungary. Another group that is of little concern.
Group H = Slovenia and Denmark already all but qualified but they have to play each other. Then Denmark get Norn Iron whist Slovenia get Khazakstan. We might have to be careful if either are in our Group, they've thrown up the odd daft result in the past, especially Denmark. With Khazakstan maybe a surprise contender for a play-off spot, Finland maybe just a good outside bet as they've got Norn Iron and Andorra to play, so might sneak that play-off spot. They might both get one to be honest.
Group I = Romania and Switzerland already qualified with a game to go. Israel will be looking for a play-off spot with the Swiss and Andorra still to play against. No real sweat here either.
Group J = Portugal have won every game, so will be a real threat. Slovakia only need a point against Iceland whilst Iceland need the win. Even then they have to go to Portugal and win whilst Slovaki play Boznia H while Luxembourg play Boznia H and pointless Leichenstein. Could get 2 in the play-off's from this lot too. Portugal are the only one's to worry about though.
Germany = the hosts. Not been tearing up trees in recent WC's and Euro's but they are on their own patch. Ignore them at your peril.
So, Portugal, France, Germany, Belgium the main threats, with Italy, Denmark, Slovenia as major banana skins.
The Taffs and the Jocks will be up for it if we meet but I doubt have the quality of previous tournaments, the Taffs without Bale in particular.
Many of the ESTC would moan about any manager Wakey. Few could or would provide the name of a better manager to replace Southgate and it would only take two defeats or a draw against someone we "should be hammering" for them to moan about him too. If we were winning every game 5-1 they'd moan about the one we let in or the other 2-3 chances we missed.
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