11-02-2015, 12:49
It's All Over Now
In a season of many black days, this was probably the blackest. Don't be fooled by Ipswich's lofty league position. This was a side who had picked up just one point out of nine in their last three against Rotherham, Brighton & Wigan and hadn't won at home this year yet we made them look like world beaters.
The starting line up was a bit of a surprise. It is pretty well accepted that Hutchinson can't play two games per week but he was included. We were told it would be a big risk to start McGugan but he was starting. Semedo didn't make it and Baker had returned to Chelsea. Presumably Jose not happy with the way his boy was treated.
Little surprise that SG went back to the rigid 442 that had failed in the first half against Cardiff (& so many other times) and little surprise also that it failed again. Don't be fooled by the score line. If Ipswich had won 5-0, it would have been a fairer reflection of their superiority & our ineptitude. This was far worse than Fulham, where we lost 4-0.
We gave the ball away straight from the kick off and it appeared there was little stomach for the fight. Why do the players go out with so little spirit or motivation?
Poor Ipswich finishing & Westwood kept us in the game yet right against the run of play, we scored. May challenged their keeper & he spilled the ball perfectly for Lee to tap home from 12 yards.
Maybe this would be the encouragement needed to step up our game? There was little sign of it as Ipswich controlled the game & had a number of near misses. Vermijl was lucky not to concede a penalty with a poor challenge. McGugan & Hutchinson were chasing shadows but we held on courtesy of the woodwork until half time.
Hutchinson, already booked in the first half, was doing his best to get sent off. Ipswich scored with pretty much a repeat of Cardiff's goal on Saturday. Vermijl gave the ball away & was out of position. Lees had to come across to cover. Dielna was left with the dilemma of filling Lees' gap or marking his man and while he hesitated, Murphy nipped in to head home.
Ipswich went close three times in quick succession with one header hitting the post & two other efforts just missing.
Hutchinson was replaced by Melo. We lacked any control or creativity. SG brought on Buxton for Vermijl and Nuhui for the limping McGugan.
Almost instantly, Buxton was caught out and Ipswich got a free ball into the box which was headed home firmly. The match was over at this point with our subs already used. May was consigned to the wing to accommodate Nuhui but it was just damage limitation as Ipswich piled on the pressure. We had isolated attempts. Keane had a shot blocked, Nuhui headed wide a half chance & Dielna curled a free kick over the bar.
Westwood - 8 - saved us from a real beating
Vermijl - 4 - destroyed
Lees - 6 - a beacon in a sea of mediocrity
Dielna - 5 - faced constant pressure
Mattock - 6 - average, which was better than most
Lee - 5 - scored but little else
Hutchinson - 5 - no influence
McGugan - 5 - not sharp enough
Helan - 5 - pretty quiet
May - 5 - worked hard, missed one half chance
Keane - 5 - rarely involved
........................................................
Melo - 5 - always on the back foot
Nuhui - 4 - one half chance
Buxton - 4 - way off the pace
Think SG has to accept that he got his tactics wrong. He continues with his rigid 442 and wonders why we start badly most weeks. When he gets more flexible, we do better but it is always back to 442 for the next match. As much as his substitutions were good on Saturday, they were poor last night. Melo for Hutch made sense but why bring on Nuhui just to play May as a winger when Bus needs game time. Also Buxton is well off match fitness & it cost us the match when Palmer was clearly a better option.
We are now 19 points off a promotion place and 9 points off a relegation place. If you split our season into five game chunks, we have got 8 - 8 - 4 - 8 - 9 - 2 points from each of them. We have been pretty consistent across the season until the last five matches, where we have had a serious down turn. Look at the league table & see what the effect would be of ten points to our league position. Add ten points and we move up two places. Deduct ten points and we drop twelve places. So whilst some may point to our tenth place, the truth is that we are far more likely to drop several places than rise several places. In fact, it is a freak that 39 points sits us tenth as at this stage in the last two seasons, it would have us placed 14th & 15th. In fact we are on target for 58 points, which is precisely what DJ got two seasons ago with inferior players.
A quick comparison with the same period of last season from when SG took over as manager to the 10th February shows:
2013/14 - P12 W6 D4 L2 F18 A7 Pts22
2014/15 - P11 W4 D3 L5 F9 A13 Pts15
The main difference is the goals. Last season, we had the Wickham factor but this season's loan signings are yet to have the same impact. While Derby signed Darren Bent, Jesse Lingard & Tom Ince, we have gone for more speculative signings.
Last season, we got 20 points from this time to the end of the season. If we do seven points worse over that period as well then we will finish on 52 points, a figure that would have relegated us two seasons ago.
I hope our season is over because the only alternative is a relegation battle. I do not think that will happen because Blackpool & Wigan are already tailed off so it only takes one of Millwall, Rotherham, Brighton & Charlton to perform averagely or worse for us to be safe. What we need to do now, is start preparing for next season. We need to start thinking about what team, formation & tactics we intend to use for next season & start getting the players used to that way of playing so we hit the floor running next season.
We have good players and if one of our strikers starts scoring then we could be promotion contenders. What SG needs is a little help. He is clearly a good coach but he needs to be given an Assistant or a Director of Football who can deal with tactics & formations because that is what is letting us down at the moment.
In a season of many black days, this was probably the blackest. Don't be fooled by Ipswich's lofty league position. This was a side who had picked up just one point out of nine in their last three against Rotherham, Brighton & Wigan and hadn't won at home this year yet we made them look like world beaters.
The starting line up was a bit of a surprise. It is pretty well accepted that Hutchinson can't play two games per week but he was included. We were told it would be a big risk to start McGugan but he was starting. Semedo didn't make it and Baker had returned to Chelsea. Presumably Jose not happy with the way his boy was treated.
Little surprise that SG went back to the rigid 442 that had failed in the first half against Cardiff (& so many other times) and little surprise also that it failed again. Don't be fooled by the score line. If Ipswich had won 5-0, it would have been a fairer reflection of their superiority & our ineptitude. This was far worse than Fulham, where we lost 4-0.
We gave the ball away straight from the kick off and it appeared there was little stomach for the fight. Why do the players go out with so little spirit or motivation?
Poor Ipswich finishing & Westwood kept us in the game yet right against the run of play, we scored. May challenged their keeper & he spilled the ball perfectly for Lee to tap home from 12 yards.
Maybe this would be the encouragement needed to step up our game? There was little sign of it as Ipswich controlled the game & had a number of near misses. Vermijl was lucky not to concede a penalty with a poor challenge. McGugan & Hutchinson were chasing shadows but we held on courtesy of the woodwork until half time.
Hutchinson, already booked in the first half, was doing his best to get sent off. Ipswich scored with pretty much a repeat of Cardiff's goal on Saturday. Vermijl gave the ball away & was out of position. Lees had to come across to cover. Dielna was left with the dilemma of filling Lees' gap or marking his man and while he hesitated, Murphy nipped in to head home.
Ipswich went close three times in quick succession with one header hitting the post & two other efforts just missing.
Hutchinson was replaced by Melo. We lacked any control or creativity. SG brought on Buxton for Vermijl and Nuhui for the limping McGugan.
Almost instantly, Buxton was caught out and Ipswich got a free ball into the box which was headed home firmly. The match was over at this point with our subs already used. May was consigned to the wing to accommodate Nuhui but it was just damage limitation as Ipswich piled on the pressure. We had isolated attempts. Keane had a shot blocked, Nuhui headed wide a half chance & Dielna curled a free kick over the bar.
Westwood - 8 - saved us from a real beating
Vermijl - 4 - destroyed
Lees - 6 - a beacon in a sea of mediocrity
Dielna - 5 - faced constant pressure
Mattock - 6 - average, which was better than most
Lee - 5 - scored but little else
Hutchinson - 5 - no influence
McGugan - 5 - not sharp enough
Helan - 5 - pretty quiet
May - 5 - worked hard, missed one half chance
Keane - 5 - rarely involved
........................................................
Melo - 5 - always on the back foot
Nuhui - 4 - one half chance
Buxton - 4 - way off the pace
Think SG has to accept that he got his tactics wrong. He continues with his rigid 442 and wonders why we start badly most weeks. When he gets more flexible, we do better but it is always back to 442 for the next match. As much as his substitutions were good on Saturday, they were poor last night. Melo for Hutch made sense but why bring on Nuhui just to play May as a winger when Bus needs game time. Also Buxton is well off match fitness & it cost us the match when Palmer was clearly a better option.
We are now 19 points off a promotion place and 9 points off a relegation place. If you split our season into five game chunks, we have got 8 - 8 - 4 - 8 - 9 - 2 points from each of them. We have been pretty consistent across the season until the last five matches, where we have had a serious down turn. Look at the league table & see what the effect would be of ten points to our league position. Add ten points and we move up two places. Deduct ten points and we drop twelve places. So whilst some may point to our tenth place, the truth is that we are far more likely to drop several places than rise several places. In fact, it is a freak that 39 points sits us tenth as at this stage in the last two seasons, it would have us placed 14th & 15th. In fact we are on target for 58 points, which is precisely what DJ got two seasons ago with inferior players.
A quick comparison with the same period of last season from when SG took over as manager to the 10th February shows:
2013/14 - P12 W6 D4 L2 F18 A7 Pts22
2014/15 - P11 W4 D3 L5 F9 A13 Pts15
The main difference is the goals. Last season, we had the Wickham factor but this season's loan signings are yet to have the same impact. While Derby signed Darren Bent, Jesse Lingard & Tom Ince, we have gone for more speculative signings.
Last season, we got 20 points from this time to the end of the season. If we do seven points worse over that period as well then we will finish on 52 points, a figure that would have relegated us two seasons ago.
I hope our season is over because the only alternative is a relegation battle. I do not think that will happen because Blackpool & Wigan are already tailed off so it only takes one of Millwall, Rotherham, Brighton & Charlton to perform averagely or worse for us to be safe. What we need to do now, is start preparing for next season. We need to start thinking about what team, formation & tactics we intend to use for next season & start getting the players used to that way of playing so we hit the floor running next season.
We have good players and if one of our strikers starts scoring then we could be promotion contenders. What SG needs is a little help. He is clearly a good coach but he needs to be given an Assistant or a Director of Football who can deal with tactics & formations because that is what is letting us down at the moment.
The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.