[0762]

Ultimately the goal stat numbers went against him. When one looks closely at the historical figure for Hibs expected goals (xG) per 90 it transpires that Hibs are the third best creative side in the Scot Prem. The big problem is that certain forwards were not ruthless enough in front of goal and Hibs conversion rate plummeted to the point where there was an alarming figure compared with Hibs stats under Ross from the start of his tenure - more clinical in front of goal! I think Doidgy's injury was more significant than many people realised at the time. He did score goals albeit not perfect as a striker. He was also a workhorse and put in a "good shift" up front before that awful achilles injury which appeared "out of the blue". And he was an effective "foil" alongside Nisbet who I don't regard as a natural pen box striker. So there was a great dependency on Boyly to score goals as nobody else really contributing regularly. During Ross's early period at Hibs, they were making fewer and lower quality scoring opps. Yet they scored more goals. Their goalscoring rate was inherently unstable, and regression was a statistical probability. Last season, the trend was reversed: Hibs xG rose to 1,55 (previously 1.44) while their goals scored per 90 dropped to 1.26. Essentially, they were creating higher-quality chances, but putting fewer away. Exacerbated once again this season - both Hibs goals and xG per 90 have dropped compared to last season. Yet there is still a "yawning chasm" between the chances Hibs are creating and the ones they're taking. Their xG says they should be scoring 1.38 times per game; they are only managing 1.13 times per game. Definitely a lack of "killer instinct" that has proved to be Hibs undoing. They are the 3rd most creative team in the Scot Prem and yet currently seventh in the scoring charts. My main point is that this profligacy in attack wasn't a short-term blip; it was an observable trend for over a year (remember some of our previous criticisms last season when we should've blown away AFC's challenge for 3rd place, but Hibs stumbled along until eventually pulling away - not that impressive!!) and it's finally cost Ross his job!