Weeks ago SGB for one thought Sutton were all but home and hosed. Now it doesn't look so certain. Their games in hand have been whittled down to one and they are now four points behind leaders Torquay.
Torquay have managed that most difficult of tricks, to establish a big lead, lose it and then fight back to be top again. You have to admire it, because they certainly aren't the best side on paper. Yet, on Saturday, they avoided the potential banana skin of a trip to Chesterfield with relative ease. Meanwhile Hartlepool were all but blowing their chance by losing at Bromley and putting their fate in the hands of the three teams above them.
Stockport are the side in form. If they could win their remaining 4 games, they'd finish on 83 points and they have easily the best goal difference, so to get above them any rival would need 84 points. That rules out Hartlepool. It means Sutton must win 4 of their remaining 5 games. And top-placed Torquay, at first sight look best-placed with just 2 wins and two draws or three wins and a defeat necessary.
The big buts for Torquay are that first they have Stockport to play, so if Stockport do their stuff, Torquay have three other must-win games, which isn't an easy proposition, and second Sutton's 5 games involve 4 against teams they would have expected to beat until the last few weeks. Their toughest game on paper is Hartlepool, but they may well be preserving their players for the play-offs by that point. So, 84 points ought not to be beyond Sutton's grasp, which would make Stockport's run irrelevant, and as their goal difference mirrors Torquay's the actual pressure would be on the Gulls to win three more times, get to 85 points and force Sutton to win all their own games if they wanted to win it. But, if Torquay can do for Stockport and win their other three then no-one can catch them.
So who wins the National League?
Torquay have managed that most difficult of tricks, to establish a big lead, lose it and then fight back to be top again. You have to admire it, because they certainly aren't the best side on paper. Yet, on Saturday, they avoided the potential banana skin of a trip to Chesterfield with relative ease. Meanwhile Hartlepool were all but blowing their chance by losing at Bromley and putting their fate in the hands of the three teams above them.
Stockport are the side in form. If they could win their remaining 4 games, they'd finish on 83 points and they have easily the best goal difference, so to get above them any rival would need 84 points. That rules out Hartlepool. It means Sutton must win 4 of their remaining 5 games. And top-placed Torquay, at first sight look best-placed with just 2 wins and two draws or three wins and a defeat necessary.
The big buts for Torquay are that first they have Stockport to play, so if Stockport do their stuff, Torquay have three other must-win games, which isn't an easy proposition, and second Sutton's 5 games involve 4 against teams they would have expected to beat until the last few weeks. Their toughest game on paper is Hartlepool, but they may well be preserving their players for the play-offs by that point. So, 84 points ought not to be beyond Sutton's grasp, which would make Stockport's run irrelevant, and as their goal difference mirrors Torquay's the actual pressure would be on the Gulls to win three more times, get to 85 points and force Sutton to win all their own games if they wanted to win it. But, if Torquay can do for Stockport and win their other three then no-one can catch them.
So who wins the National League?