I think SGB's confidence in Sutton could be misplaced. Their last 10 games have been almost impossibly good - Won 7 Drawn 3 for 24 points. Pass them a Liver Bird. Wrexham, like us, have managed to grab 21 points, which is brilliant, Hartlepool 18, Halifax and Dagenham 17, Stockport and Yeovil 16. Notts County are on 13 and Torquay have only managed 11.
Ten games ago Torquay had played 19 and gained 40 points, Hartlepool were on 39 after 22 games, Sutton on 35 from 19, Notts County were on 33 from 17 and Stockport 32 from 19. Wrexham were on 26 points and we were on 24, out of the hunt!
So with 13 games left why wouldn't Sutton's winning profile be as open to change as Notts County's and Torquay's has been in the last 10 games? Their run might continue, but equally the effect of a defeat at this stage might be much greater than normal. Suddenly learning how to lose again can quickly turn into a bit of habit, just as winning was a few weeks earlier. These are teams full of frail human beans, one minute super-confident, the next waiting for today's fatal error.
And when you hit the play-offs it isn't so much where you finish, whether you are playing home and away, that's going to matter as the mood within the squad. If you go in confident that even one goal is enough to win you a game then you are likely to do well, if you are all thinking about those last three defeats that dropped you a couple of spots in the division, you've pretty much had your chips.
As for Sutton, now if they go 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats in their next ten games that wouldn't be a terrible return, but Hartlepool might be capable of finishing the season on 78 points plus and a team coming with a rattle from Stockport or Wrexham's position might even reach the 80s by the end of the season and pose a real problem for Sutton. They don't need to implode to see the title race become closer. At the moment they are probably outperforming their own level of ability. Over the last ten games they've been getting 2.4 points per game. In the previous 19 they were going at 1.8. If they return to their previous rate they'll piss it, but they achieved that when under no pressure. Now every game is a big one, is that a help or a hindrance?
Ten games ago Torquay had played 19 and gained 40 points, Hartlepool were on 39 after 22 games, Sutton on 35 from 19, Notts County were on 33 from 17 and Stockport 32 from 19. Wrexham were on 26 points and we were on 24, out of the hunt!
So with 13 games left why wouldn't Sutton's winning profile be as open to change as Notts County's and Torquay's has been in the last 10 games? Their run might continue, but equally the effect of a defeat at this stage might be much greater than normal. Suddenly learning how to lose again can quickly turn into a bit of habit, just as winning was a few weeks earlier. These are teams full of frail human beans, one minute super-confident, the next waiting for today's fatal error.
And when you hit the play-offs it isn't so much where you finish, whether you are playing home and away, that's going to matter as the mood within the squad. If you go in confident that even one goal is enough to win you a game then you are likely to do well, if you are all thinking about those last three defeats that dropped you a couple of spots in the division, you've pretty much had your chips.
As for Sutton, now if they go 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats in their next ten games that wouldn't be a terrible return, but Hartlepool might be capable of finishing the season on 78 points plus and a team coming with a rattle from Stockport or Wrexham's position might even reach the 80s by the end of the season and pose a real problem for Sutton. They don't need to implode to see the title race become closer. At the moment they are probably outperforming their own level of ability. Over the last ten games they've been getting 2.4 points per game. In the previous 19 they were going at 1.8. If they return to their previous rate they'll piss it, but they achieved that when under no pressure. Now every game is a big one, is that a help or a hindrance?