There's loads of stuff about the new-manager effect - but it's where and when you decide to stop measuring the effect and how you decide what is down to the new manager makes it unscientific and unreliable. Danny Wilson whopped seven past Shrewsbury ............
Grimsby have been on a bad run. If they had done nothing, with 36 points from 36 games, they could've expected eventually to revert to their normal level of gaining points ie 1 point a game. End of season on 46 then. 46 might well be enough to do for us. We'd have to get 17 more points. That's win 5 draw 2 lose 5. If Grimsby stayed up because we didn't achieve that, would it be the new manager effect ........ or would we have witnessed nothing happening at all? I think nothing.
If he keeps them up, he'll start next season. Like GC he'll recruit for it. If these ten games are misleading as to his ability, Grimsby are condemning themselves to struggle again. I think they should have stuck by Slade till the end of the season, but by making it obvious he was going to get the push they contributed to the downward spiral and helped create the very problem they now hope their new accidental-little-girl-lover will solve.
For us to stay up the new man has to contribute to Grimsby's current slide and accelerate it. We need them to come up with something like win 1 draw 2 and lose 7 to enable us to stay up on 42 points which represents us winning 4 and losing 8, just about at the top end of our current range of achievement. And that assumes Barnet won't improve either!
Grimsby have been on a bad run. If they had done nothing, with 36 points from 36 games, they could've expected eventually to revert to their normal level of gaining points ie 1 point a game. End of season on 46 then. 46 might well be enough to do for us. We'd have to get 17 more points. That's win 5 draw 2 lose 5. If Grimsby stayed up because we didn't achieve that, would it be the new manager effect ........ or would we have witnessed nothing happening at all? I think nothing.
If he keeps them up, he'll start next season. Like GC he'll recruit for it. If these ten games are misleading as to his ability, Grimsby are condemning themselves to struggle again. I think they should have stuck by Slade till the end of the season, but by making it obvious he was going to get the push they contributed to the downward spiral and helped create the very problem they now hope their new accidental-little-girl-lover will solve.
For us to stay up the new man has to contribute to Grimsby's current slide and accelerate it. We need them to come up with something like win 1 draw 2 and lose 7 to enable us to stay up on 42 points which represents us winning 4 and losing 8, just about at the top end of our current range of achievement. And that assumes Barnet won't improve either!