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+----- Thread: The gambling/betting thread (/showthread.php?tid=1239)
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 22-07-2016
Canadian Open
Could be a shock result here, wedged between two majors so while Dustin, Snedeker & Furyk are the stand out candidates for me, I have gone for a few longer shots.
Emiliano Grillo 33/1
Tony Finau 45/1
Jon Rahm 66/1
Bryce Molder 100/1
Rob Oppenheim 500/1
Good Luck!
Canadian Open (Round One)
Emiliano Grillo 33/1 +1 Tied 55th
Tony Finau 45/1 +2 Tied 83rd
Jon Rahm 66/1 -5 Tied 3rd
Bryce Molder 100/1 +5 Tied 128th
Rob Oppenheim 500/1 +8 Tied 150th
Luke List & Dustin Johnson lead by one on -6. Other notables include Snedeker -4, Kuchar -3, Day -3, Furyk -2, Lee +3, McDowell +3, Rodgers +4, Fitzpatrick +4.
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 23-07-2016
Canadian Open (Round Two)
Emiliano Grillo 33/1 +1 Tied 47th
Tony Finau 45/1 -2 Tied 21st
Jon Rahm 66/1 -6 Tied 3rd
Bryce Molder 100/1 +5 MC
Rob Oppenheim 500/1 +7 MC
Luke List & Dustin Johnson lead by one on -7. Other notables include Kuchar -4, Furyk -3, Snedeker -3, Walker -2, Kirk +1, Day +1, Rodgers +2, Lee +2, Els +2, Fitzpatrick +3 MC, McDowell +7 MC. The draw gave all our players a tough first round. All did better yesterday but it was too much of a handicap for Molder & Oppenheim. Our other three players should contend over the weekend, particularly Rahm who is one shot off the lead.
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 24-07-2016
Canadian Open (Day Three)
Emiliano Grillo 33/1 +1 Tied 52nd
Tony Finau 45/1 +2 Tied 60th
Jon Rahm 66/1 -6 Tied 6th
Snedeker leads by one on -9 from D Johnson & Du Toit. Other notables include: Kuchar -6, Furyk -4, Walker -3, Day -2, Kirk -2, Els +1, Rodgers +1, Lee +2,
Hopefully Rahm can hit a 66 today.
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 25-07-2016
Canadian Open (Day Four)
Emiliano Grillo 33/1 -2 Tied 43rd
Tony Finau 45/1 +3 Tied 70th
Jon Rahm 66/1 -11 Tied 2nd
A great full place for us with Jon Rahm missing out on the title by a single shot for us at 66/1 to Jhonattan Vegas on -12. Other notables include Dustin Johnson -11, Snedeker -10, Kuchar -9, Furyk -8, Kirk -7, Day -7, Walker -7, Lee -4, Rodgers -4, Els +2.
Keeps us in profit nicely as we head towards the final major of 2016.
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 27-07-2016
USPGA Championship
Tricky final major of the season so let's try & narrow it down a bit.
The favourites are D Johnson 10/1, McIlroy 10/1, Day 10/1, Stenson 16/1, Speith 16/1, Mickelson 25/1, Garcia 33/1, Scott 35/1, Rose 35/1, Fowler 40/1 & Watson 40/1.
All the above are possibles but I think we rule out McIlroy, Speith & Mickelson on price and Day, Scott, Rose & Fowler on form.
Previous winners of this event tend to have good previous form in this event with 7 of the last 10 winners having previously finished in the top ten. All of the last ten winners were aged between 23 & 37. Eight of the last ten winners were ranked in the top 25. Six of the last ten winners were ranked in the top five. Nine of the previous ten winners had already won on tour that season. Nine of the last ten winners had a top ten finish in one of their two last starts. Five of last ten winners had a win in one of their previos two starts. Seven of last ten winners had a top ten finish in a major already that season.
Here are my selections:
Dustin Johnson 10/1
Henrik Stenson 16/1
Sergio Garcia 33/1
Lee Westwood 100/1
Jason Dufner 100/1
Gary Woodland 150/1
Keegan Bradley 160/1
Soren Kjeldsen 200/1
I think that gives us a good portfolio against the rest of the field. McIlroy could bust the field and Mickelson could have a final hoorah on a course he likes but Dustin holds more tour wins than any other players over the last five years with a winning score of less than -10 (which will most likely happen here), Stenson will win if he plays like he did at Troon, Garcia is the master of consistency & sure to be close. My other picks are good value for their chances.
There are others that could be picked for value: JB Hlomes 70/1, Danny Willett 90/1, Rafael Cabrera Bello 150/1 & Andrew Johnston 300/1.
This will be a tough course. Hitting the fairways is so important so while distance is important, accuracy is more important. Should be an enjoyable four days and hopefully with a winner or at least a couple of places.
Good Luck!
RE: The gambling/betting thread - Owlkev71 - 27-07-2016
Would love to see Sergio finally win a Major, same with Westwood.
RE: The gambling/betting thread - Owlkev71 - 28-07-2016
US PGA
Henrik Stenson 14/1
Jordan Speith 16/1
Phil Mickelson 22/1
JB Holmes 50/1
Kevin Chappell 80/1
Bill Haas 100/1
Andrew Johnston 150/1
Matt Fitzpatrick 150/1
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 29-07-2016
USPGA Championship (Day One)
A fascinating opening day with several big names struggling in the heat and the afternoon players also having to contend with a rising wind. Jimmy Walker leads by one on -5 from Grillo, Fisher & Kaymer. Other notables include Sullivan -3, Fowler -2, Day -2, Oosthuizen -2, Matsuyama -1, Grace Par, Scott Par, Johnstone Par, Speith Par, Rose, Par, Z Johnson +1, Mickelson +1, Watson +1, Willett +1, Fitzpatrick +2, Lowry +2, Els +3, Snedeker +3, Schwartzel +3, McIlroy +4, Kuchar +4, Furyk +4, McDowell +4, Holmes +5,
Stenson was impressive, scoring well in the worst of the conditions so could be right in contention if the wind picks up in the afternoon today. Day looked to be returning to his best & his name is one to fear for the round one leaders.
Dustin Johnson 10/1 +7 Tied 148th
Henrik Stenson 16/1 -3 Tied 5th
Sergio Garcia 33/1 +1 Tied 55th
Lee Westwood 100/1 -1 Tied 21st
Jason Dufner 100/1 +1 Tied 55th
Gary Woodland 150/1 +3 Tied 107th
Keegan Bradley 160/1 +3 Tied 107th
Soren Kjeldsen 200/1 Par Tied 36th
RE: The gambling/betting thread - Owlkev71 - 29-07-2016
Not sure what happened to Dustin Johnson yesterday, hopefully just a bad day at the office for his sake.
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 29-07-2016
(29-07-2016, 13:26)Owlkev71 Wrote: Not sure what happened to Dustin Johnson yesterday, hopefully just a bad day at the office for his sake.
Think it was a combination of a bad start and the worst of the weather. Then it was in his head. Needs a great score today just to make the cut.