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+----- Thread: The gambling/betting thread (/showthread.php?tid=1239)
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 15-06-2016
US Open
Where do we start?
This could be the trickiest tournament to predict the outcome of all season. The US Open is notoriously difficult to predict but at Oakmont, it is doubly difficult because there will be double, triple & quadruple bogeys that will end many a top player's tournament.
Jason Day is a pretty solid 13/2 favourite with McIlroy 15/2, Speith 10/1 & Dustin Johnson 16/1. Everyone is here and we need to whittle the field down to a few good value bets.
There is no one area to focus in on here because it will take a combination of driving accuracy, driving distanace, GIR, scrambling, putting & mental fortitude to get close here.
Oakmont has staged this event eight times with the winning score last time (2007) being five over par with ten over par giving a top six finish. Oakmont has brutal rough and fast greens, a combination to test the best and most will fail.
If we look at previous winners, we see quite a few top players & multiple major winners (Speith, Kaymer, Rose, McIlroy, McDowell, Woods, Cabrera) so it takes a quality player but quite often these players were on their way up whe they won this event. More specifically, we should look at US Opens at Oakmont. Every Oakmont US Open winner in the last hundred years has gone on to be a multiple major winner.
In 2007, Cabrera was the winner but behind him was a real mixture of other bombers (Woods, Bubba) mixed with canny short game players (Furyk, Toms) so while good distance gives an advantage, it appears to be a fairly even contest for all styles of golf.
I think GIR & Putting are the most important stats here and that it will take top putting to be in contention. Good driving will be an advantage but so will scrambling.
I really cannot bet at single figure price on an event like this. I accept that Jason Day is the most likely winner because he has the best all round figures and has the mental fortitude to hang in there when things are going badly. Likewise, I will be leaving Speith & McIlroy alone as well. Dustin Johnson has his merits but not at this price for me.
I am starting at around 33/1 and looking for players that have the ability but I am also looking for a streak of toughness to get there when all looks lost.
Danny Willett 45/1
Willett won the Masters and is still 45/1 for a repeat here which I consider to be more than fair. I don't think everyone has caught on to how good Willett really is yet and I think this course could be right up his street because Willett can keep churning out the pars whilst other blow their chances & who knows, this contest could well go to the one who keeps going the longest.
Brooks Koepka 50/1
Koepka fits the bill for me as another major winner in waiting. He has threatened a few times but I think he can step it up now. Second placed finishes at the Byron Nelson & St Jude Classic show that his form is right up there as well as top five finishes in this event in the last two years. If he has the belief then this could be his break through week.
Brandt Snedeker 70/1
Snedeker is another who shows his best in the trickiest of circumstances. His win at the Farmers Insurance a couple of months back was in the most testing of conditions where he kept dropped shots to a minimum and watched everyone fall away around him. It could be the same this week.
Matt Fitzpatrick 80/1
Not sure that he is quite ready to win a major yet but he is durable as he showed with a top ten finish at the Masters and is in form as he showed winning the Nordea Masters last time out. Another blunt Yorkshireman who could be there or thereabouts on Sunday.
Rafa Cabrera Bello 175/1
RCB has been our friend this season & owes us nothing but he is another who could step it up to the next level. He has been weak around the greens but improvements there have put him in contention several times this season and if he can hold it together mentally then he could be a big priced winner.
Soren Kjeldsen 200/1
A top ten finish at Augusta suggests that he can perform in majors & in tough conditions. Not consistent enough but he has odd weeks where he holds it all together & at 200/1, I am happy to punt this is one of those weeks.
Andrew Johnston 300/1
This would be a shock result but Johnston has put a few solid performances together recently and his recent win at Valderama is a good guide as the qualities to win there are similar to Oakmont. Decent value at 300/1.
Angel Cabrera 500/1
Call me a sentimental old fool but I have been on Cabrera for all his major wins so am going again here. Everyone says he is past it but the said that in 2007 and that was just the start of it for Cabrera. His general results are average to poor but in the biggest events & on the toughest courses, he sometimes pulls one out of the bag. At 500/1, Let me be sentimental.
A few others that I am looking for big performances include Leishman 90/1, Horschel 80/1, McDowell 150/1, Goosen 150/1, Lingmerth 175/1, Toms 400/1, Hoge 400/1, Ogilvy 500/1 & Oppenheim 1000/1.
Good Luck!
I will be having a few FRL bets where I believe the early starters will have an advantage.
This includes:
Andrew Johnston 200/1
Tom Hoge 250/1
Rob Oppenheim 500/1
Sam Horsfield 500/1
Good Luck!
RE: The gambling/betting thread - Owlkev71 - 16-06-2016
US Open
Phil Mickelson 25/1
Danny Willett 35/1
Charl Schwartzel 66/1
Matt Fitzpatrick 66/1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 300/1
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 17-06-2016
US Open (Day One)
Only nine players finished their first round & half the field didn't even tee off due to terrible weather. Andrew Landry leads by one on -3 from Bubba Watson & Danny Lee. Notable scores include: Westwood -1, Kaymer Par, Zach Johnson Par, Kuchar +1, Speith +1, Reed +2, McIlroy +4, Donald +5, Fowler +6
Danny Willett 45/1 +4 Tied 38th
Brooks Koepka 50/1 DNS
Brandt Snedeker 70/1 DNS
Matt Fitzpatrick 80/1 Par Tied 8th
Rafa Cabrera Bello 175/1 +4 Tied 38th
Soren Kjeldsen 200/1 DNS
Andrew Johnston 300/1 +5 Tied 45th
Angel Cabrera 500/1 DNS
Hopefully the weather allows play to catch up today.
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 18-06-2016
US Open (Day Two)
Positions are still distorted as half the players are still to start their second round although organisers expect to catch up today. Dustin Johnson & Andrew Landry lead the way on -4 although Johnson has played two rounds while Landry has only played one. Lee Westwood is one shot back on -3. Other notable names (projected cut +6): Garcia -2, Lowry -2, Sullivan -1, Furyk -1, Watson -1, Scott Par, Oosthuizen +1, Kuchar +1, Zach Johnson +1, Speith +2, McDowell +3, Schwartzel +4, Day +5, Rose +6, Donald +6, Fowler +6, Mickelson +7, McIlroy +7, Els +8, Stenson +9, Aphibarnrat +11, Matsuyama +12.
Danny Willett 45/1 +5 Tied 56th
Brooks Koepka 50/1 +4 Tied 47th
Brandt Snedeker 70/1 +11 Tied 132nd
Matt Fitzpatrick 80/1 +3 Tied 35th
Rafa Cabrera Bello 175/1 +4 Tied 47th
Soren Kjeldsen 200/1 +9 Tied 117th
Andrew Johnston 300/1 +5 Tied 56th
Angel Cabrera 500/1 +5 Tied 56th
None of our guys are in contention but there is a long way to go. If we can get six past the cut then a place or two is a possibility as the leaders fall back..........hopefully.
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 19-06-2016
US Open (Day Three)
The leaders are now halfway round their third round so we should catch up today. Shane Lowry leads by two on -5 from Andrew Landry. Other notables: Westwood -2, Garcia -2, Dustin Johnson -2, Grace -1, Day +1, Zach Johnson +1, Scott +2, Schwartzel +3, Oosthuizen +3, Kuchar +4, Speight +4, McDowell +4, Furyk +4, Watson +7, Mickelson +7 MC, Rose +8 MC, Donald +8 MC, McIlroy +8 MC, Fowler +11 MC, Matsuyama +12 MC, Aphibarnrat +14 MC,
Should be a brilliant final day.
Danny Willett 45/1 +8 Tied 51st
Brooks Koepka 50/1 +6 Tied 40th
Brandt Snedeker 70/1 +11 MC
Matt Fitzpatrick 80/1 +12 Tied 64th
Rafa Cabrera Bello 175/1 +6 Tied 40th
Soren Kjeldsen 200/1 +9 Tied MC
Andrew Johnston 300/1 +9 Tied 59th
Angel Cabrera 500/1 +5 Tied 56th
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 23-06-2016
BMW International Open
Garcia, Willett & Stenson lead the market at 9/1 but I prefer to look for longer prices on the week after a major. A bit short on time this week but going each way for the following:
Scott Hend 50/1
Jeunghun Wang 66/1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 80/1
Matt Southgate 250/1
Good Luck!
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 23-06-2016
Quicken Loans National
Patrick Reed & Rickie Fowler head the field at 16/1 in a pretty open contest. My picks are:
Byeong Hun An 33/1
Harold Varner III 100/1
Shawn Stefani 100/1
Bud Cauley 150/1
Good Luck!
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 23-06-2016
BMW International Open (Day One)
Jacquelin leads by one on -7 from Oliver Fisher. Other notables include Wiesberger -4, Stenson -4, Stone -2, Luiten -2, Garcia -1, Sullivan -1, Willett +2, Warren +4.
Scott Hend 50/1 -1 Tied 41st
Jeunghun Wang 66/1 +1 Tied 82nd
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 80/1 -3 Tied 14th
Matt Southgate 250/1 -1 Tied 41st
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 24-06-2016
Quicken Loans National
Jon Rahm leads by one on -7 from Jhonattan Vegas. Other notables include Lovemark -5, Els -5, Hoffman -4, Reed -3, Fowler -3, Thomas -2, Henley +1, Steele +2, Furyk +2, Choi +4.
Byeong Hun An 33/1 -2 Tied 35th
Harold Varner III 100/1 -5 Tied 3rd
Shawn Stefani 100/1 Par Tied 72nd
Bud Cauley 150/1 (Withdrew)
Our guys are well placed to challenge.
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 24-06-2016
BMW International Open (Day Two)
Jacquelin, Stenson & Aphibarnrat lead by one on -11 from Oleson. Other notables include Luiten -7, Wiesberger -6, Garcia -5, Sullivan -4, Stone -2, Willett Par, Warren Par, Colsaerts +1.
Scott Hend 50/1 +3 Tied 102nd
Jeunghun Wang 66/1 Par Tied 72nd
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 80/1 -11 Tied 1st
Matt Southgate 250/1 +2 Tied 97th
Go APHIBARNRAT!!!!!!!!!!