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+----- Thread: The gambling/betting thread (/showthread.php?tid=1239)
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 03-05-2016
Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Result)
Rain meant a 54 hole result with Brian Stuard winning in a Playoff ahead Jamie Lovemark and Byeong-Hun An. Lovemark earned us a full place at 50/1 while our other players all gave us a good run.
Daniel Berger 25/1 -8 Tied 20th
Patton Kizzire 60/1 -11 Tied 8th
Jamie Lovemark 50/1 -15 2nd
Cameron Tringale 50/1 -5 Tied 48th
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 04-05-2016
Trophee Hassan II
Before we start this week's preview, let's reflect on last week where Jamie Lovemark was just a stroke from victory in New Orleans, losing in a Playoff giving us a 50/1 full place.
The European Tour moves to Morocco this week and we have probably the weakest field of the year so far so a great opportunity for a maiden winner or someone to stamp their class against the rest. The event moves to the Royal Golf Club Dar Es Salam where we have limited course form. What we do know is that the couse is likely to favour GIR players with little advantage for long driving.
The field is led by Alexander Levy & Alejandro Canizares. I like Canazares but cannot get too excited by 16/1 on a player who blows hot & cold. In fact, it is hard to pick a strategy here because the players that I like to back at 50/1+ are half their usual price this week so going for a mix of prices. Here is a portfolio that should net us a place or two & might catch us the winner. There are arguments for Burmester, Dunne, Pepperell, and a few others but this is our team for this week.
Gregory Bourdy 22/1
A player I have dabbled with recently who could blow this field apart or could do nothing. I would prefer a bigger price but 22/1 will look massive if he holds a five shot lead after 54 holes. He has decent form and if he steps it up a notch........
Andrew Johnston 25/1
Won the Spanish Open three weeks ago and after a couple of weeks rest, he is back. If he is anywhere near that form then he is the most likely winner here.
Dylan Frittelli 40/1
Frittelli caught my eye with his second place at the Australian PGA in December and has been in decent form since with top twenty finishes in South African Open, Tshwane Open, Kenya Open & Egyptian Challenge. Could be his breakthrough week.
Mike Lorenzo Vera 66/1
Has gone close a few times recently interspersed with several missed cuts. If he is on this week then he could burst clear & stay there. His 6th place at the Spanish Open was quality. Just needs to repeat that against a weaker field.
Christiaan Bezuidenhuit 75/1
Regular followers will know I am a fan of the young South African who has already bagged us a second place at 250/1. This course is perfect for him and at 75/1, he is a snip.
Ross McGowan 110/1
Finished 12th in SA Open & 10th in Joburg Open. On a similar course here & against a weaker field, could just make the jump up.
Good Luck!
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 05-05-2016
Wells Fargo
This event is being staged at the Quail Hollow Golf Club, Charlotte, North Carolina. The leading contenders are McIlroy, Fowler, Scott, Matsuyama, Stenson & Rose. While McIlroy has a great record on the course, I cannot feel confident enough of him to go with 4/1. In fact, there are enough doubts about most of the favourites that I am going for none of the above and am looking for a decent price to beat the favourites.
This isn't an easy course to asess. It has traditionally favoured GIR & Scrambling. However, the last couple of years (after course adjustments), it has favoured driving distance so brings the bombers well into play.
JB Holmes 28/1
Winner here two years ago so suited by the course since the recent adjustments. His most recent finishes have been 6th - 6th - 11th - 11th - 59th - 4th - 13th so he is in pretty good form. The combination makes him great value here.
Daniel Berger 40/1
Suffered with the weather last week when well placed. Worth another chance.
Justin Thomas 50/1
It could just be a bombers week so Justin fits the bill. He looks to be coming into form as well.
Jim Herman 300/1
Two months ago, there was little to warrant any support then out of the blue, he won the Shell Houston Open. Six weeks later, he is back as a 300/1 shot. Then you look back a year & notice that he was 13th here. Maybe lightening will strike twice.
There are a few others who might be worthy of a punt - Lovemark 60/1, DeChambeau 66/1, Finau 70/1, Donald 80/1, Kokrak 70/1, Schniederjans 150/1 & Wyatt 200/1.
Good Luck!
RE: The gambling/betting thread - Owlkev71 - 05-05-2016
Wells Fargo
Hideki Matsuyama 22/1
Jamie Lovemark 50/1
Patton Kizzire 66/1
Shane Lowry 100/1
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 05-05-2016
Trophee Hassan II (Day One)
Gregory Bourdy 22/1 +2 Tied 62nd
Andrew Johnston 25/1 -2 Tied 9th
Dylan Frittelli 40/1 Par Tied 33rd
Mike Lorenzo Vera 66/1 -3 Tied 4th
Christiaan Bezuidenhuit 75/1 Par Tied 33rd
Ross McGowan 110/1 +6 Tied 118th
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 06-05-2016
Wells Fargo Championship (Day One)
Steve Wheatcroft & Andrew Loupe lead on -7 by one from Lahiri. Berger is well placed to challenge but our other guys have plenty of work to do. Mixed day for the big names ( Goosen -3, Mickelson -3, Poulter -2, Casey -2, Rose -2, Fowler -1, Kaymer -1, Stenson Par, McIlroy +1, Scott +1, Matsuyama +2, Lovemark +2, Lowry +2, Donald +4)
JB Holmes 28/1 Par Tied 53rd
Daniel Berger 40/1 -4 Tied 6th
Justin Thomas 50/1 +1 Tied 75th
Jim Herman 300/1 +3 Tied 125th
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 07-05-2016
Trophee Hassan II (Day Two)
Gregory Bourdy 22/1 +4 Tied 63rd
Andrew Johnston 25/1 Par Tied 25th
Dylan Frittelli 40/1 +3 Tied 56th
Mike Lorenzo Vera 66/1 +1 Tied 35th
Christiaan Bezuidenhuit 75/1 -2 Tied 10th
Ross McGowan 110/1 +9 Tied 115th
Wells Fargo Championship (Day Two)
Andrew Loupe leads by one on -8 from Roberto Castro. Notable names: Mickelson -5, Fowler -5, Rose -4, Casey -3, Goosen -3, McIlroy -2, Els -1, Scott -1, Kaymer Par, Poulter Par, Donald +1, Matsuyama +1, Stenson +3 (MC), Lowry +3 (MC). Berger is in good shape & Holmes isn't out of it but the big names are gathering and Fowler looks ready to pounce.
JB Holmes 28/1 Par Tied 45th
Daniel Berger 40/1 -5 Tied 5th
Justin Thomas 50/1 +4 Missed Cut
Jim Herman 300/1 +5 Missed Cut
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 08-05-2016
Trophee Hassan II (Day Three)
Gregory Bourdy 22/1 +6 Tied 57th
Andrew Johnston 25/1 +4 Tied 46th
Dylan Frittelli 40/1 +1 Tied 26th
Mike Lorenzo Vera 66/1 +4 Tied 46th
Christiaan Bezuidenhuit 75/1 -1 Tied 13th
Chris Hanson leads by one on -6 from Berardo & Dixon. Still pretty open but our guys have a lot to do.
Wells Fargo Championship (Day Three)
Rickie Fowler leads by one on -9 from Castro. Berger has a lot to do to even grab a place.
JB Holmes 28/1 +2 Tied 51st
Daniel Berger 40/1 -3 Tied 10th
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 11-05-2016
Mauritius Open
Tricky to pick a winner here with possibly the weakest field ever on the European Tour. Coetzee, Hend, Stone & Van Zyl lead the betting markets in an open contest. There are open fairways which suggests that the course favours big hitters with little penalty for a lack of accuracy.
Scott Hend 12/1
The price is a bit short but I see Hend as the most likely winner if he plays to his potential. He has won for us at 45/1 in Thailand and placed at 50/1 in Shenzhen. Course is perfect for him. Could be close.
JeungHun Wang 20/1
Impressive winner in Morrocco last week and could repeat it this week against an even weaker field.
Haydn Porteous 28/1
Won the Jo'burg Open in January and should be suited by this course. Good enough for a top five finish.
Max Orrin 40/1
Very mixed views on Orrin's chances here. He is the course specialist with three wins and a fifth on this course in the last two years. Some might say that he hasn't beaten much but he beat Colsaerts & Otto three times and the field isn't much stronger here and 40/1 is a fair price.
Chris Hanson 80/1
I was impressed with him last week in Morocco where a fifth place didn't really do him justice. He has a 6th & 12th placed finishes on this course so could be close this week at a decent price.
Good Luck!
Latest Updates on our season long bets.
Championship
Middlesbrough to Win (e/w) 11/2 - PLACE WON
Sheff Wed to Win (e/w) 28/1 - Lost
Charlton to be Relegated 4/1 - WON
Burnley Top North West Side 6/5 - WON
Sheff Wed Top Half 4/5 - WON
Birmingham Top Half 5/4 - WON
Blackburn Bottom Half 5/6 - WON
QPR Bottom Half 11/8 - 12th - Lost
Leeds Bottom Half 4/6 - WON
Top Six - Middlesbrough 4/6 - WON
Top Six - Hull City Evens - WON
Promotion - Sheff Wed 6/1 (Now 7/2) - Playoffs
League One
Blackpool to be Relegated 11/5 - WON
Top Half - Burton Evens - WON
Top Half - Rochdale 6/4 - WON
Top Half - Shrewsbury 5/6 - Lost
Top Half - Bury 10/11 - Lost
Bottom Half - Chesterfield 10/11 - WON
Leon Clarke Top Goalscorer 16/1 - 9th - Lost
Tom Bradshaw Top Goalscorer 25/1 - 8th - Lost
Paddy Madden Top Goalscorer 25/1 - 5th, one goal off a place - Lost
Top Six Swindon 2/1 - Lost
Top Six Barnsley 2/1 - WON
Top Six Peterboro 3/1 - Lost
League Two
Portsmouth to Win (e/w) 4/1 - Place WON
Northampton to Win (e/w) 12/1 - WON
Top Half Wycombe 5/6 - Lost on goal difference
Top Half Bristol Rovers 8/11 - WON
Top Seven - Orient 11/8 (Now 33/1) - lost
Top Seven - Northampton 13/8 (Now No Odds) - WON
Matt Green Top Scorer 25/1 - 7th Lost
Europa League
Sevilla 16/1 (Now 8/11) - In Final
RE: The gambling/betting thread - Owlkev71 - 12-05-2016
Players Championship:
Rickie Fowler 16/1
Dustin Johnson 33/1
Brandt Snedeker 70/1
Brooks Koepka 80/1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 125/1