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+----- Thread: The gambling/betting thread (/showthread.php?tid=1239)
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 10-06-2015
Never too confident the week before a major as you don't know who is trying & who wants the weekend off to get away early.
Lyoness Open
We have a clear favourite here & while I have been happy to oppose McIlroy & Stenson in recent weeks, Wiesburger is a worthy favourite here. The odds are stingy but go for win only at 11/2.
Other bets:
Quesne 30/1
Slattery 55/1 (I would have him at 20/1 on my book)
Fitzpatrick 55/1
McArthur 100/1
St Judes Classic
I have been waiting for the right course for Chesson Hadley for a while & this could be it and at 80/1, he represents good each way value.
Also go for Luke Donald at 40/1 & punt on Sam Saunders at 500/1.
Here is a value 500/1 bet for the US Open Golf.
Michael Putnam
I accept this is a bit of a punt but at 500/1 this is excellent value. The Chambers Bay course is new so there is no form on this course. However, Putnam qualified on the course with a 66. He lives just a mile from the course and has been practising on the course every day since it opened and hasn't shot over par yet according to reports. He has played it in all conditions so look for Top Ten & Top Twenty markets when they open next week.
RE: The gambling/betting thread - Imre varadi - 11-06-2015
Maybe a good safe bet will be i bet we dont sign anyone untill 3 days before kickoff !!
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 11-06-2015
Slattery, Fitzpatrick & Quesne are all currently tied for 7th, two shots behind the leader.
Quesne though still has 13 holes to play.
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 14-06-2015
Good start with Fitzpatrick finishing 3rd at 55/1.
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 15-06-2015
My bets for the US Open:
This is a course that is very much in the style of British links courses so we are looking for shot making players who can keep the ball straight. I might have some bets later in the week but I have started with
Matsuyama 35/1
Furyk 40/1
J Walker 50/1
Putnam 500/1
Seems like a few have latched on to Putnam since I mentioned him last week as his odds have since been cut to 300/1.
The romantics might have gone with Mickelson, available at 25/1 until yesterday, to finally win a US Open in his birthday week & the course should suit & his form is on the up.
Adding Putnam to finish in the Top Twenty at 8/1 with SKY Bet.
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 15-06-2015
Adding Jordan Speith at 9/1. He is best player this season and at 9/1 each way, we are in front even if he finishes 6th.
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 18-06-2015
US Open starts today.
Added Justin Rose at 20/1. The course suits him and his recent form is good.
Also added Ernie Els to finish in the Top Twenty at 8/1. People forget how good Ernie is in majors. While he plods most of the season, he has finished in the Top Twenty in seven of his last ten majors so 8/1 is a snip.
My final bet is for Tiger Woods to miss the cut. He is missing cut after cut at the moment so the 5/6 on Betfair looks like value to me.
My buddy who loves backing McIlroy to miss the cut reckons the 7/2 is great value. I rated it about 3/1 so maybe is value but marginal rather than great.
Good Luck!
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 18-06-2015
Gone for a number of winners of their individual three balls today
Putnam 6/4
Matsuyama 5/4
Furyk 5/6
Koepka 11/8
Els 6/4
Fowler 6/5
Lowry 6/4
Jimmy Walker 6/4
I have gone with lots of multiple bets across these players with the overall accumulator at 795/1
RE: The gambling/betting thread - Owlkev71 - 18-06-2015
US Open bets:
Rory McIlroy 15/2
Jordan Speith 9/1
Dustin Johnson 20/1
Adam Scott 40/1
Brooks Koepka 50/1
Tiger Woods 66/1
All e/w bets.
Was going to have a bet on Tiger to finish in the top 20 but the odds are only 5/2.
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 18-06-2015
(18-06-2015, 10:58)Owlkev71 Wrote: US Open bets:
Rory McIlroy 15/2
Jordan Speith 9/1
Dustin Johnson 20/1
Adam Scott 40/1
Brooks Koepka 50/1
Tiger Woods 66/1
All e/w bets.
Was going to have a bet on Tiger to finish in the top 20 but the odds are only 5/2.
My thoughts.
McIlroy - not his sort of course and out of form but he has the ability to up his game for a major. I would only rate him about 14/1 so not on my list.
Speith - should suit his game and should be about 7/1 so worth a bet
Johnson - people who follow my tips know I like DJ. However this course is his worst nightmare. It is all about accuracy & little to gain for big drivers so not keen
Scott - the course should suit but his form has been sketchy. The price is about right so worth a punt if he gets back to his best
Koepka - a lively outsider, in form & good value at 50/1
Woods - if he gets back to his best then great value but I fear he won't do much for a while. My group were discussing Tiger in detail and one thinks he is great value to make the cut at Evens while the rest of us like the 5/6 on him to miss the cut. Divides opinion.
There are so many different reason to back so many different players on an unusual course which could make a lot of good players look like amateurs. There will be hard luck stories and I could pick ten players & not get one in the top six.
Good Luck