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+----- Thread: The gambling/betting thread (/showthread.php?tid=1239)
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 25-02-2016
(24-02-2016, 18:23)madsteve Wrote: ISPS Handa Perth International
Louis Oosterhuizen leads the betting at 11/1 for the 4th running of this event at the Lake Karrinyup Country Club in Perth.
This is a course with wide fairways where accuracy counts for very little and GIR players are likely to succeed.
Looking at the field, I am torn whether this is an easy event to pick the winner or a particularly tough one because two names jump off the page at me and despite a fair bit of research, nothing better is hitting me.
Thorbjorn Oleson 20/1
Oleson is reigning champion here and has the perfect game for this course. He has a second & an eight from his last three starts so is most likely to go close here.
Lucas Bjerregaard 33/1
Lucas was 4th here last year and has improved immesurably since then and should go very close in a field which is pretty weak overall. The signs were there last week that he is coming back to form and on this course, his big drives won't get punished if he loses his radar.
Miguel Tabuena 60/1
Couldn't help but be impressed with this guy last week and feel at the price he might give us another good run.
A trio of FRL with Matthew Griffin, Stephen Gallacher & Romain Wattel, all out early.
Good Luck!
Honda Classic
We have a pretty strong field for this event at the PGA National Champion Course in Palm Beach, Florida, headed by McIlroy, Fowler, Reed, Matsuyama, Scott, Mickelson & Grace. This event started in 1972 but has run on this course since 2007 so we have enough data to get a good feel for things. This is a tough course where the wind usually blows and a score of -10 is usually enough to take the title.
I talked about linking courses & tournaments a few months ago & this is one where players that do well in the Sony Open tend to do well here as well so giving us far more data. The overlap is pretty clear and obvious with both courses being blustery and Bermuda.
Struggling to see much value in the big names here with only Reed having much appeal so going for four players at triple figure prices that might just hook a big win.
Russell Henley 125/1
A win here two years ago and also a Sony Open winner so is well suited to this course.
Camilio Villegas 150/1
Won here in 2010 and was second in 2007 so likes the course. Showed form last week so might give a run.
Fabian Gomez 200/1
Won the Sony Open last month and Sony Open winners tend to do well here & he is 200/1.
Rory Sabbatini 250/1
Winner here in 2011 and twice runner up at the Sony Open so ideally suited to challenge again here.
Small bets, Big prices!
ISPS Handa Perth International (Day One)
Peter Uhlein leads the way on -7, a shot clear of Wattel & Kapur. Our guys have a fair bit to do, particularly Bjerregaard, who let one bad shot get to him. However by backing Wattel each way at 66/1 for FRL, we are already covered for all our week's bets.
Thorbjorn Oleson 20/1 -1 Tied 33rd
Lucas Bjerregaard 33/1 +2 Tied 92nd
Miguel Tabuena 60/1 Par Tied 47th
A trio of FRL with Matthew Griffin, Stephen Gallacher & Romain Wattel, all out early. Wattel was one shot off FRL on -6 but picks us up a full place at 66/4 so we are freerolling this week.
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 26-02-2016
Honda Classic (Day One)
A closely packed field with Garcia & Thompson leading the way on -5. A mixed day for the bigger names with some doing well (Fowler -4, Lowry -3, Walker -3, Dufner -2, Mickelson -1, Casey -1) and others less well (McIlroy +2, Grace +3, Reed +4, Donald +5, Rodgers +6, Bradley +7, Kokrak +9).
We went with small bets on long shots and none really did it so have a long way to go now.
Russell Henley 125/1 +4 Tied 96th
Camilio Villegas 150/1 +2 Tied 65th
Fabian Gomez 200/1 +5 Tied 106th
Rory Sabbatini 250/1 +6 Tied 120th
RE: The gambling/betting thread - Owlkev71 - 26-02-2016
Honda Classic
Adam Scott E T23
Brooks Koepka E T23
Jimmy Walker -3 T5
Matthew Fitzpatrick +1 T40
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 26-02-2016
Football League Bets
After a good midweek, the fixtures give us four good bets and one decent bet for the weekend.
Bolton v Burnley
This should be a low corners match. Burnley have been good all season for low corners on their travels and their corner totals have got even lower in recent weeks. Eight of their last ten on the road have failed to reach 10.5 Corners with six under 8.5, including all of the last four. Bolton are not the perfect match up but are good enough with five of their last seven at home failing to reach this line. Unless we get an early goal and a siege then it should go low. Bet Two Points on Under 10.5 Corners at 1.95.
Scunthorpe v Oldham
This looks like a very good bet for low goals. Scunthorpe home matches have been low scoring all season with 12 out of 15 failing to reach 2.5 Goals. Oldham match up pretty well with 12 of their 16 away matches also dropping short of this line. Bet Six Points on Under 2.5 Goals at 8/11.
Accrington v Barnet
Accrington have been a cash cow for us this season with high goals & low corners. Today we go with the low corners as we did in midweek, winning with just 5 corners. Under 10.5 Corners would have won in 11 of their 14 home matches this season at an average of 8.29. It would also have won in nine of Barnet's 15 away matches with their last two being 6 & 8 Corners. Bet Six Points on Under 10.5 Corners at 1.825.
Leyton Orient v Crawley
This should be a high scoring game. Eight of Orient's last 12 at home have topped 2.5 Goals at an average of 3.25 while 13 of Crawley's last 15 away have also cleared this line at an average of 3.53. Bet Four Points on Over 2.5 Goals at 10/11.
Morecambe v Carlisle
This looks a good bet for low corners. Ten of Morecambe's last 12 at home have failed to reach 10.5 Corners at an average of 9.0 while 12 of Carlisle's last 14 away have also failed to reach this line at an average of 8.57. Bet Four Points on Under 10.5 Corners at 1.85.
Correct Score Bets
Charlton v Reading 0-1 1-1
Colchester v Shrewsbury 1-2 2-3
Doncaster v Millwall 0-1 0-2
Hartlepool v Northampton 0-2 1-2
(Two Correct Midweek)
Good Luck!
RE: The gambling/betting thread - Owlkev71 - 29-02-2016
Adam Scott wins the Honda Classic
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 29-02-2016
(29-02-2016, 01:13)Owlkev71 Wrote: Adam Scott wins the Honda Classic
Good pick.
A lot will have gone down with the big names so was happy to go with players at triple figure prices.
Villigas gave us a bit of a run at 150/1, finishing tied 14th but never closer than 8th over the weekend.
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 01-03-2016
Football League Bets
Four good bets for tonight with one particularly outstanding.
Shrewsbury v Rochdale
This should be a high corners match. The Shrews last four at home have all cleared the 10.5 corner line at an average of 13.75 while Dale's last nine away average 13.22 corners with six going over 10.5 Corners. Bet Two Points on Over 10.5 Corners at 1.975.
Southend v Crewe
Should be high goals here. The Shrimpers last six at home have all gone over 2.5 goals at an average of 3.67 goals per match while five of the Alex's last seven on the road have cleared this line at an average of 3.86 goals per match. Bet Four Points on Over 2,5 Goals at 1.95.
Walsall v Scunthorpe
This should be a low corners match. The Saddlers' last seven home matches have all failed to reach 10.5 corners at an average of 7.43 corners per match while the 14 of the Iron's 16 away matches have failed to reach this line at an average of 8.69. Bet Six Points on Under 10.5 Corners at 1.85.
Carlisle v Leyton O
This should also be a low corners match. Carlisle's last eight home matches have all failed to reach 10.5 Corners at an average of 7.75. Nine of the O's last ten away matches have also dropped short of this line at an average of 8.2 Corners per game. Bet Eight Points on Under 10.5 Corners at 1.90.
Correct Score Bets
Bradford v Colchester 2-0 3-0
Barnet v Plymouth 1-0 1-1
Bristol R v Hartlepool 2-0 2-1
Crawley v Newport 0-1 1-1
Good Luck!
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 02-03-2016
(01-03-2016, 17:49)madsteve Wrote: Football League Bets
Four good bets for tonight with one particularly outstanding.
Shrewsbury v Rochdale
This should be a high corners match. The Shrews last four at home have all cleared the 10.5 corner line at an average of 13.75 while Dale's last nine away average 13.22 corners with six going over 10.5 Corners. Bet Two Points on Over 10.5 Corners at 1.975.
Southend v Crewe
Should be high goals here. The Shrimpers last six at home have all gone over 2.5 goals at an average of 3.67 goals per match while five of the Alex's last seven on the road have cleared this line at an average of 3.86 goals per match. Bet Four Points on Over 2,5 Goals at 1.95.
Walsall v Scunthorpe
This should be a low corners match. The Saddlers' last seven home matches have all failed to reach 10.5 corners at an average of 7.43 corners per match while the 14 of the Iron's 16 away matches have failed to reach this line at an average of 8.69. Bet Six Points on Under 10.5 Corners at 1.85.
Carlisle v Leyton O
This should also be a low corners match. Carlisle's last eight home matches have all failed to reach 10.5 Corners at an average of 7.75. Nine of the O's last ten away matches have also dropped short of this line at an average of 8.2 Corners per game. Bet Eight Points on Under 10.5 Corners at 1.90.
Correct Score Bets
Bradford v Colchester 2-0 3-0
Barnet v Plymouth 1-0 1-1
Bristol R v Hartlepool 2-0 2-1
Crawley v Newport 0-1 1-1
Good Luck!
Great Night & 10.25 Points profit with both big bets winning - mortgage paid!
Correct score at Barnet as well.
WGC Cadillac Championship
Some weeks the bets jump out at you but this is one of those weeks where they don't really. We can probably eliminate 75% of the field reasonably easily but after that, it is possible to argue a good case for most of the rest.
This tournament is played on the Doral Course (often known as the Blue Monster), which clearly favours the big hitters and 48 of the World Top 50 are competing here in the toughest field so far of 2016. McIlroy heads the betting at 10/1 with Bubba, Dustin, Scott, Speith, Day, Fowler, Stenson & Rose not far behind. Making a long list was easy; selecting the winner is a fair bit tougher.
We have many years on this course so plenty of form to go on & driving distance has provided most of the winners and pretty much none of the other performance stats comes close in finding a winner. However, in 2014 the course was redesigned, making it much tougher but still favouring the big hitters. There have been some adjustments for this year, most significantly dropping several bunkers back 20-40 yards to catch the big hitters drives. How much effect this has is unknown.
Last season's big three are here but none of them has set the world alight this season although I have to admit to being tempted by Rory at a double figures price. One thing that I have noticed about golfers who do well in this event is that they are invariably golfers who went into this event in form. It is not a course that favours first time players.
So we are looking for big hitters, a good course record and good current form.
I think we have to bypass McIlroy, Speith, Day & Fowler here; the first three on grounds of form and Fowler because he struggles on this course. My problem has been chopping my long list of ten down.
Bubba Watson 12/1
There are never any guarantees with Bubba but his chances this week are as good as ever. He blows hot and cold but he appears to be blowing hot at the moment so it is the right time to side with him here. He come off the back of a win and has a 2nd & 3rd here since the course redesigned. If he is on it, should go very close.
Adam Scott 12/1
Scott made my long list last week but I decided to go only with triple figure priced players & missed out. This week, he makes my short list. He has always tended to win in clusters and his current form is irresistable. On top of his win last week, he has two runner up finishes in his previous three events. He also has two top five finishes in this event in the last three years. Put this together & he should be there or thereabouts.
JB Holmes 30/1
Should have won here last year but let a five shot lead slip on the final day. Looks ripe for a win with a lowest place of 11th from his four starts this year. Should be able to boom it down the fairways here & is a more than fair price.
Louis Oosthuizen 40/1
Think this is a great price for a player ideally suited by the course & bang in form. In four starts this year he has finished 12th, 7th & 1st, winning in Perth last week. It was also the way he won that impressed me. His swing got progressively more relaxed with each round which will be ideal on this course. He finished 6th here last year and I expect him to go even better this year.
Danny Willett 70/1
If one player is overpriced here it is Willett. He is now ranked 15 in the world (rightly so) yet is 26th in the betting & that is on a course that is perfect for the long hitting Sheffielder. He is picking his events this year so will be going for the win. He won in Dubai four weeks ago so is in good nick plus he was 12th here a year ago on his debut and I expect a top five finish if he gets a decent start.
The other five players that I had in consideration this week were Dustin Johnson 12/1, Henrik Stenson 25/1, Brandt Snedeker 70/1, Andy Sullivan 125/1 & Scott Hend 400/1.
Have gone for three FRL bets:
Danny Willett 66/1
Andy Sullivan 80/1
Scott Hend 150/1
All start early and all can get out of the traps quickly.
RE: The gambling/betting thread - Owlkev71 - 03-03-2016
WGC
Rickie Fowler 14/1
Brooks Koepka 30/1
Patrick Reed 40/1
Kevin Kisner 66/1
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 04-03-2016
(02-03-2016, 18:30)madsteve Wrote:(01-03-2016, 17:49)madsteve Wrote: Football League Bets
Four good bets for tonight with one particularly outstanding.
Shrewsbury v Rochdale
This should be a high corners match. The Shrews last four at home have all cleared the 10.5 corner line at an average of 13.75 while Dale's last nine away average 13.22 corners with six going over 10.5 Corners. Bet Two Points on Over 10.5 Corners at 1.975.
Southend v Crewe
Should be high goals here. The Shrimpers last six at home have all gone over 2.5 goals at an average of 3.67 goals per match while five of the Alex's last seven on the road have cleared this line at an average of 3.86 goals per match. Bet Four Points on Over 2,5 Goals at 1.95.
Walsall v Scunthorpe
This should be a low corners match. The Saddlers' last seven home matches have all failed to reach 10.5 corners at an average of 7.43 corners per match while the 14 of the Iron's 16 away matches have failed to reach this line at an average of 8.69. Bet Six Points on Under 10.5 Corners at 1.85.
Carlisle v Leyton O
This should also be a low corners match. Carlisle's last eight home matches have all failed to reach 10.5 Corners at an average of 7.75. Nine of the O's last ten away matches have also dropped short of this line at an average of 8.2 Corners per game. Bet Eight Points on Under 10.5 Corners at 1.90.
Correct Score Bets
Bradford v Colchester 2-0 3-0
Barnet v Plymouth 1-0 1-1
Bristol R v Hartlepool 2-0 2-1
Crawley v Newport 0-1 1-1
Good Luck!
Great Night & 10.25 Points profit with both big bets winning - mortgage paid!
Correct score at Barnet as well.
WGC Cadillac Championship (Day One)
Bubba Watson 12/1 -3 Tied 8th
Adam Scott 12/1 -4 Tied 4th
JB Holmes 30/1 +5 Tied 62nd
Louis Oosthuizen 40/1 +2 Tied 43rd
Danny Willett 70/1 -4 Tied 4th
A great first day for us with three players in the top ten. Scott Piercy & Marcus Fraser lead the way on -6 with Mickelson one shot behind. Several big names are close behind (Dufner, Speith, Walker, Matsuyama & Fowler) while some others are well out of contention (Reed, Kaymer, Snedeker, Thomas, Rose & Kisner).
Should be a great weekend.
Have gone for three FRL bets:
Danny Willett 66/1 Tied 4th at 66/1
Andy Sullivan 80/1
Scott Hend 150/1
Willett's place in FRL betting means that we have just about covered our bets already.