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+----- Thread: Next Three ....What Next ? (/showthread.php?tid=3338)
RE: Next Five ..... Will we ............. - Ska'dForLife-WBA - 15-12-2015
As it's a boring Monday night, here's a quick glance at the threshold throughout the 20-team Prem era. For each year I'm taking the finishing points and goal difference of the club in 18th place, i.e. the team you have to stay ahead of if you're already outside the relegation zone (as we are).
1996: 38 pts, -25
1997: 40 pts, -18
1998: 40 pts, -20
1999: 36 pts, -15
2000: 33 pts, -28
2001: 34 pts, -24
2002: 36 pts, -23
2003: 42 pts, -17
2004: 33 pts, -17
2005: 33 pts, -21
2006: 34 pts, -22
2007: 38 pts, -23
2008: 36 pts, -25
2009: 34 pts, -19
2010: 30 pts, -40
2011: 39 pts, -21
2012: 36 pts, -31
2013: 36 pts, -26
2014: 33 pts, -34
2015: 35 pts, -18
Some quick conclusions:
1. The rule of thumb of needing roughly a point per game is more or less spot on.
2. 36 points with a decent goal difference (no worse than -20, ideally around -15 or better) would have seen you safe in 14 out of 20 seasons overall (70%), and 13 out of 16 since the millennium (81%).
3. The team who concedes the most goals over the course of the season always ends up relegated, and this has been the case ever since Crystal Palace survived in the old First Division in 1990 despite conceding 66 goals. (Interestingly, at this moment in time the two joint leakiest teams in the division are Newcastle and Bournemouth - both outside the drop zone - with Villa and Sunderland tied just behind them).
4. This is probably a no-brainer, but broadly speaking, in seasons when the relegation threshold creeps higher than usual, there's very little difference between the mid-table sides and the strugglers, and a lot of teams even quite high up the league don't reach mathematical safety till the last couple of weeks. It's in seasons when a clear gap opens up between the dogfight and mid-table that the threshold tends to be lower than usual.
Again, I'll emphasise that the figures above are the stats for teams finishing 18th; the ones you have to stay ahead of to survive if you're already outside the drop zone. Our fishy friends down the road have to better the team in 17th place, and that's a tougher set of figures.
RE: Next Five ..... Will we ............. - Dingle-Dingle - 15-12-2015
I knew you "Stat Heads" would help here. Thanks will have to keep an eye on this. DD
(that`s a rep point each)Edit..... So each Draw is a GOOD point.
RE: Next Five ..... Will we ............. - St Charles Owl - 15-12-2015
(15-12-2015, 02:24)Dingle-Dingle Wrote: I knew you "Stat Heads" would help here. Thanks will have to keep an eye on this. DD
Edit..... So each Draw is a GOOD point.
Draw every game and you would only have been relegated 4 times in the last 20 years, so an 80% chance at staying up!! That makes every point gained highly important come the end of the season!!
RE: Next Five ..... Will we ............. - Tibby Baggie - 15-12-2015
(15-12-2015, 04:44)St Charles Owl Wrote:(15-12-2015, 02:24)Dingle-Dingle Wrote: I knew you "Stat Heads" would help here. Thanks will have to keep an eye on this. DD
Edit..... So each Draw is a GOOD point.
Draw every game and you would only have been relegated 4 times in the last 20 years, so an 80% chance at staying up!! That makes every point gained highly important come the end of the season!!
Meandbren, the above is exactly why a draw isn't always a bad result. If you'd have offered that we'd have an unbeaten run against Arsenal, West Ham, Tottenham and Liverpool before a ball was kicked; I'd have taken that in a heartbeat.
RE: Next Five ..... Will we ............. - Stairs - 15-12-2015
Ah but if you lose a game then you are a point down and need to replace it with a win. Each win means you can afford to have lost two games.
RE: Next Five ..... Will we ............. - silverbaggie - 15-12-2015
That's only OK if all your drawn games are on a Saturday.
Pack it in lads, you're doin me ead in!
RE: Next Five ..... Will we ............. - St Charles Owl - 15-12-2015
(15-12-2015, 10:02)Stairs Wrote: Ah but if you lose a game then you are a point down and need to replace it with a win. Each win means you can afford to have lost two games.
True, but at least this season you have Villa in the division, so thats a guaranteed 2 wins isn't it!!!
RE: Next Five ..... Will we ............. - Tibby Baggie - 15-12-2015
(15-12-2015, 18:31)St Charles Owl Wrote:(15-12-2015, 10:02)Stairs Wrote: Ah but if you lose a game then you are a point down and need to replace it with a win. Each win means you can afford to have lost two games.
True, but at least this season you have Villa in the division, so thats a guaranteed 2 wins isn't it!!!
The trouble is that it's 2 guaranteed wins for everyone in the league though more or less haha
RE: Next Five ..... Will we ............. - meandbrenarebaggies - 15-12-2015
I seem to have upset a few posters with my belief
that a point from a draw is useless. At the moment
Leicester are top with 35 points and we are 13th
with 20 points. They have WON 5 more games than us.
We have LOST 5 more games than them. These are
the important stats. If Leicester lost 5 points they
would still be third in the table; if we lost 5 points we
would only drop 3 places.
Point is; we have both drawn 5 games.
In the great scheme of things those draws are useless.
RE: Next Five ..... Will we ............. - Ska'dForLife-WBA - 15-12-2015
I see the point you're making; yes, draws are effectively "bonus points" in that sense. They're there to top up your wins, and sooner or later, if you're not chalking up those necessary wins then you'll be in trouble.
But that still doesn't make them worthless. Teams have survived by a single point, and won the title by a single point. Yes, you could argue that they'd have done so with a greater margin if they'd turned a few more draws into wins... but what if they'd thrown the kitchen sink at trying to get those wins and ended up losing the games instead? Would the supporters hang their heads at season's end and wish they could have just been satisfied with a point every now and then?
Some draws *are* worthwhile.