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+----- Thread: The gambling/betting thread (/showthread.php?tid=1239)
RE: The gambling/betting thread - Owlkev71 - 19-08-2015
Wyndham Championship:
Brooks Koepka 14/1
Brandt Snedeker 16/1
Hideki Matsuyama 18/1
Ryan Moore 33/1
Daniel Summerhays 100/1
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 19-08-2015
Wyndham Championship:
Brooks Koepka 16/1 (Coral)
Ryan Moore 40/1 (Coral)
Harris English 70/1 (BetFred)
Russell Knox 80/1 (Hills)
Made In Denmark
Marc Warren 10/1 (General)
Matthew Fitzpatrick 20/1 (Coral)
Oliver Fisher 125/1 (General)
Not betting too much this week as the week after a major often throws up shock winners.
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 21-08-2015
How are our long term bets doing?
Here are comparisons of our price with the current price.
Championship
Middlesbrough to Win (e/w) 11/2 (Now 3/1)
Sheff Wed to Win (e/w) 28/1 (Now 28/1)
Huddersfield to be Relegated 4/1 (Now 11/4)
Blackburn to be Relegated 8/1 (Now 5/1)
Burnley Top North West Side 6/5 (Now 5/4)
Sheff Wed Top Half 4/5 (Now 8/11)
Blackburn Bottom Half 5/6 (Now 8/15)
QPR Bottom Half 11/8 (Now 5/4)
Leeds Bottom Half 4/6 (Now 8/15)
Benik Afobe Top Goalscorer 9/1 (now 15/2)
David Nugent Top Goalscorer 16/1 (Now 20/1)
Top Six - Middlesbrough 4/6 (Now 4/9)
Top Six - Hull City Evens (Now 8/11)
Overall pretty happy so far. Middlesbrough have justified my support & but for a last gasp goal by Derby on Tuesday would be top now. Huddersfield & Blackburn have both started poorly and should give us a good run for our money. Afobe has started brightly but Nugent hasn't had a start yet for Boro.
League One
Swindon to Win (e/w) 18/1 (Now 18/1)
Barnsley to Win (e/w) 20/1 (Now 15/1)
Bury to Win (e/w) 35/1 (Now 33/1)
Blackpool to be Relegated 11/5 (Now 10/11)
Southend to be Relegated 4/1 (Now 9/2)
Port Vale to be Relegated 13/8 (Now 6/4)
Top Half - Burton Evens (Now 4/5)
Top Half - Rochdale 6/4 (Now 4/5)
Top Half - Shrewsbury 5/6 (Now 6/5)
Top Half - Bury 10/11 (Now 4/5)
Bottom Half - Chesterfield 10/11 (Now 5/4)
Bottom Half - Walsall 8/11 (Now 11/10)
Leon Clarke Top Goalscorer 16/1 (Now 14/1)
Tom Bradshaw Top Goalscorer 25/1 (Now 16/1)
Paddy Madden Top Goalscorer 25/1 (Now 14/1)
Top Six Swindon 2/1 (Now 9/4)
Top Six Barnsley 2/1 (Now 7/4)
Largely happy. Blackpool have continued to nosedive. Rochdale, Burton & Bury have started well. Chesterfield have bought well and are doing much better than I thought and Walsall have also started well. Our goalscorers have all started well.
League Two
Portsmouth to Win (e/w) 4/1 (Now 3/1)
Top Half Wycombe 5/6 (Now 2/7)
Top Half Bristol Rovers 8/11 (Now 2/5)
Top Seven - Orient 11/8 (Now 4/5)
Top Seven - Northampton 13/8 (Now 11/8)
Happy here with all bets now at shorter odds than when placed. My only worry is that Orient are looking so good that they may beat Portsmouth to the title and I think a saver at 8/1 is probably the way to go here.
RE: The gambling/betting thread - Owlkev71 - 21-08-2015
Wyndham Championship:
Brooks Koepka -3 T35
Brandt Snedeker E T103
Hideki Matsuyama -5 T11
Ryan Moore -4 T20
Daniel Summerhays -3 T35
Also had a bet on:
Tiger Woods -6 T7 Don't think it will last, but you never know.
Had an accumulator before the season started, all 4 league winners:
Chelsea 16th
Hull City 2nd
The Blades 8th
Portsmouth 5th
£1200 quid if that comes in
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 21-08-2015
As I have said before, I am not a fan of betting much during the early weeks of the season because there are so many freak results and form and trends haven't had time to set in. One exception that I make is to look for trends that have carried over from the previous season, which can be reliable a bit earlier than new trends. Here are trends that have carried over from last season in the Football League:
Blackburn - 6/7 home matches under 10.5 Corners (average 8.7)
Bolton - 4/5 home matches over 10.5 corners (average 13.8)
Bolton - 5/6 away matches over 10.5 Corners (average 13.0)
Bolton - 7/8 home matches under 2.5 goals (average 1.6)
Brentford - 10/10 home matches over 2.5 goals (average 3.8)
Brentford - 7/7 away matches under 10.5 corners (average 8.7)
Brighton - 8/8 home matches under 2.5 goals (average 1.5)
Bristol City - 6/7 home matches over 2.5 goals (average 4.3)
Charlton - 5/5 away matches under 2.5 goals (average 1.2)
Fulham - 6/7 home matches over 2.5 goals (average 4.3)
Fulham - 5/5 away matches under 10.5 corners (average 8.2)
Fulham - 13/14 away matches under 3.5 cards (average 2.1)
Huddersfield - 5/5 away matches under 2.5 goals (average 1.4)
Ipswich - 5/5 home wins
Ipswich - 5/6 home matches over 10.5 corners (average 12.8)
Ipswich - 8/10 away matches over 10.5 corners (average 12.5)
Leeds - 6/6 without home win
Leeds - 7/7 home matches under 10.5 corners (average 8.6)
Leeds - 7/8 away matches over 35 booking points (average 45.6)
Middlesbrough - 7/9 home matches clean sheets
Middlesbrough - 6/9 home matches win to nil
Middlesbrough - 5/5 home matches under 10.5 corners (average 9.2)
Nottm F - 7/7 without away win
Reading - 6/6 home matches under 2.5 goals (average 1.0)
Sheff Wed - 10/12 home matches under 2.5 goals (average 1.7)
Sheff Wed - 8/9 home matches under 10.5 corners (average 8.1)
Wolves - 5/5 homes matches both teams scored
Wolves - 6/7 away matches both teams scored
Wolves - 9/10 away matches under 10.5 corners (average 8.5)
Blackpool - 10/10 home matches without a win
Blackpool - 16/16 away matches without a win
Blackpool - 5/6 away matches over 2.5 goals (average 4.0)
Bradford - 10/10 home matches under 10.5 corners (average 7.9)
Colchester - 6/7 away matches over 2.5 goals (average 3.6)
Coventry - 4/5 home matches under 10.5 corners (average 9.2)
Coventry - 5/6 away matches clean sheets
Crewe - 12/12 home matches under 2.5 goals (average 1.1)
Gillingham - 4/4 home wins
Gillingham - 6/6 away matches both teams scored
Gillingham - 7/7 away matches under 10.5 corners (average 7.9)
Oldham - 5/5 home matches over 10.5 corners (average 13.4)
Oldham - 7/7 away matches under 2.5 goals
Peterboro - 12/13 home matches under 10.5 corners (average 7.8)
Peterboro - 7/7 away matches under 2.5 goals (average 1.9)
Peterboro - 7/7 away matches over 10.5 corners (average 13.3)
Port Vale - 8/8 home matches without a win
Scunthorpe - 7/8 away matches over 2.5 goals (average 3.9)
Southend - 22/24 home matches under 2.5 goals (average 1.5)
Swindon - 9/11 home matches over 2.5 goals (average 3.3)
Walsall - 8/9 home matches under 2.5 goals (average 1.9)
Walsall - 8/10 home matches under 10.5 corners (average 7.6)
Accrington - 6/6 home matches under 10.5 corners (average 7.3)
Exeter - 10/11 home matches under 10.5 corners (average 8.7)
Exeter - 8/8 away matches over 2.5 goals (average 3.5)
Hartlepool - 7/9 home matches under 2.5 goals (average 1.7)
Hartlepool - 11/13 away matches over 10.5 corners (average 11.8)
Luton - 12/14 away matches under 2.5 goals (average 1.7)
Mansfield - 5/5 away matches under 10.5 corners (average 7.2)
Newport - 9/11 away matches under 10.5 corners (average 8.8)
Northampton - 6/6 away matches under 10.5 corners (average 8.3)
Plymouth - 6/6 home matches both teams scored
Stevenage - 5/6 home matches over 10.5 corners (average 16.0)
Stevenage - 6/7 away matches over 10.5 corners (average 15.0)
Wycombe - 5/6 home matches under 10.5 corners (average 8.5)
York - 13/15 home matches under 2.5 goals (average 1.4)
Even though these trends look good, I would still be watchful at this stage of the season. I used to lose money in August & September and it took me until March to win it back. Now I don't bet big until October. There might be a bet or two but I will be keeping small for the next six weeks.
(19-08-2015, 15:33)madsteve Wrote: Wyndham Championship:
Brooks Koepka 16/1 (Coral) -3 T35
Ryan Moore 40/1 (Coral) -4 T20
Harris English 70/1 (BetFred) -2 T66
Russell Knox 80/1 (Hills) +1 T116
Made In Denmark
Marc Warren 10/1 (General) Evens - T67
Matthew Fitzpatrick 20/1 (Coral) -2 T30
Oliver Fisher 125/1 (General) -1 T51
Not betting too much this week as the week after a major often throws up shock winners.
Not a great Day One this week but hey, who knows.....
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 21-08-2015
Made In Denmark - Round Two
Marc Warren -4 T15
Oliver Fisher -3 T27
Matthew Fitzpatrick -3 T27
All three make the cut but they all need a big third round to get into contention.
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 22-08-2015
Wyndham Championship
Harris English -7 T16
Brooks Koepka -6 T22
Ryan Moore -5 T32
Russell Knox -2 Missed Cut by one shot
Top of the leader board is Tiger Woods on -11. Can he keep it up?
Too early for any bets of note but three jump off the page today.
Stevenage v Hartlepool
Both of these teams have started the season with high corner trends that match how they finished last season. Stevenage home matches have had over 14.5 corners five times in the last six including 23 last week against Notts County. Pool match up well with 10 of their last 13 on the road topping 10.5 corners, 8 of them topping 12.5 including their first away match this season at York. Normally, I would be betting big here but August form is unreliable so I will be betting small.
Bet Over 11 Corners (Draw No Bet) at 1.85 (Bet365)
Walsall v Coventry
Walsall did us proud last season with low corner games and started this season with just 4 corners against Oldham, taking their home record to 8 out of ten under 10.5 corners with 7 of those under 8.5. Coventry match up reasonably well as they tend to follow the trends of their opponents. Just a very small bet here.
Bet Under 10 Corners (DNB) at 1.90 (Bet365)
Leeds v Sheff Wed (12.30 kick off)
Going for low corners here, mainly based on Leeds' seven consecutive home matches below 10.5 corners at an average of 8.6. Wednesday were a low corner side last season, endorsed by two low home totals this season, but they did go high in their first away match at Ipswich. Again, a very small bet for interest in a TV game.
Bet Under 10.5 Corners at 1.875 (Bet365)
Have decided to have a bit of fun with a string of correct score bets (very small)
West Brom 2-1 Chelsea
Palace 1-0 Villa
Everton 0-2 Man City
Sunderland 0-2 Swansea
Man Utd 2-0 Newcastle
Leeds 1-1 Sheff Wed
Leeds 1-2 Sheff Wed
Middlesbrough 2-0 Bristol City
Middlesbrough 1-0 Bristol City
Burnley 3-2 Brentford
Charlton 0-1 Hull
Brighton 1-0 Blackburn
Barnsley 1-0 Bradford
Southend 0-1 Swindon
Crewe 0-1 Bury
Portsmouth 2-0 Morecambe
Wycombe 2-0 Dagenham
Yeovil 0-1 Luton
This are mainly measured but based on a small sample of results with punts at West Brom ((Chelsea bogey side) and Burnley (should be plenty of goals), which will cover all the bets if they come in.
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 23-08-2015
(22-08-2015, 09:12)madsteve Wrote: Wyndham Championship
Harris English -7 T16
Brooks Koepka -6 T22
Ryan Moore -5 T32
Russell Knox -2 Missed Cut by one shot
Top of the leader board is Tiger Woods on -11. Can he keep it up?
Too early for any bets of note but three jump off the page today.
Stevenage v Hartlepool
Both of these teams have started the season with high corner trends that match how they finished last season. Stevenage home matches have had over 14.5 corners five times in the last six including 23 last week against Notts County. Pool match up well with 10 of their last 13 on the road topping 10.5 corners, 8 of them topping 12.5 including their first away match this season at York. Normally, I would be betting big here but August form is unreliable so I will be betting small.
Bet Over 11 Corners (Draw No Bet) at 1.85 (Bet365)
Walsall v Coventry
Walsall did us proud last season with low corner games and started this season with just 4 corners against Oldham, taking their home record to 8 out of ten under 10.5 corners with 7 of those under 8.5. Coventry match up reasonably well as they tend to follow the trends of their opponents. Just a very small bet here.
Bet Under 10 Corners (DNB) at 1.90 (Bet365)
Leeds v Sheff Wed (12.30 kick off)
Going for low corners here, mainly based on Leeds' seven consecutive home matches below 10.5 corners at an average of 8.6. Wednesday were a low corner side last season, endorsed by two low home totals this season, but they did go high in their first away match at Ipswich. Again, a very small bet for interest in a TV game.
Bet Under 10.5 Corners at 1.875 (Bet365)
Have decided to have a bit of fun with a string of correct score bets (very small)
West Brom 2-1 Chelsea
Palace 1-0 Villa
Everton 0-2 Man City
Sunderland 0-2 Swansea
Man Utd 2-0 Newcastle
Leeds 1-1 Sheff Wed
Leeds 1-2 Sheff Wed
Middlesbrough 2-0 Bristol City
Middlesbrough 1-0 Bristol City
Burnley 3-2 Brentford
Charlton 0-1 Hull
Brighton 1-0 Blackburn
Barnsley 1-0 Bradford
Southend 0-1 Swindon
Crewe 0-1 Bury
Portsmouth 2-0 Morecambe
Wycombe 2-0 Dagenham
Yeovil 0-1 Luton
This are mainly measured but based on a small sample of results with punts at West Brom ((Chelsea bogey side) and Burnley (should be plenty of goals), which will cover all the bets if they come in.
Two out of the three bets won with comfortable winning bets at Leeds (7 corners) & Walsall ( 6 corners)
Three correct scores at Leeds (7.2), Brighton (7.8) & Southend (12.0) already gives a nine point profit with the games at West Brom & Everton still to come.
£50 bets on the corners bets and £10 on the correct scores ((£330 outlay) would have given a return of £458.75 with two results still to come. Hope you were on.
Made In Denmark - Round Two
Marc Warren -4 T35
Oliver Fisher -6 T12
Matthew Fitzpatrick -2 T62
Need a bit of a good final round to get in the money here. Warren seems to be playing a bit tired as he defends his title. Fisher looks our best bet.
Wyndham Championship
Harris English -10 T16
Brooks Koepka -9 T21
Ryan Moore -10 T16
All three are just a couple of shots off a place although five shots off the lead makes a win look a bit of a push. Still having three in with a shout on the final day is good. Tiger is tied second on -13.
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 24-08-2015
Add the correct score on Everton v Man Utd at 11.5 and our profit increases to £243.75.
The golf didn't go so well with a couple of near misses at Wyndham.
Brooks Koepka -14 Tied 6th
Ryan Moore -13 Tied 10th
Harris English -9 Tied 31st
Obviously they paid five place.
Tiger Woods blew up on the final round to finish Tied 10th but there were signs for three rounds that he might be a contender again.
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 25-08-2015
If you want to make money on LC Round Two, avoid the favourites. There were eight wins in this round last year by teams beating teams from higher divisions including Wednesday at Burnley & MK Dons against Man Utd.
Backing any team at greater than 9/4 playing a team from a higher division should be profitable with several teams at around 9/1.
The PGA Tour Event this week is The Barclays & it is a star studded field with all the big names except McIlroy playing.
My strategy is to go for players with a combination of course form and current form with good each way odds.
Matt Kucher 35/1 - got a 6th place at the PGA so is in decent form & is a former winner here plus three other top ten finishes.
Brandt Snedeker 50/1 - shot a 62 last week to place and shot a 61 here last year. Inconsistent but if he puts a few rounds together..... At 50/1 is good value
Graham DeLaet 175/1 - this is a punt as he is just back from injury & he is inconsistent but this is one of his favourite courses. He was 5th in this event in 2012 and 2nd in 2013. He blew it with an opening round of 78 last year but showed his love of the course with a second round 67.
With Speith, Day, Rose, Johnson, Bubba, Fowler etc. in the field, it will be tough but one place will give a serious profit.
All bets here with Bet365.