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+----- Thread: The gambling/betting thread (/showthread.php?tid=1239)
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 14-07-2015
(14-07-2015, 00:54)St Charles Owl Wrote: Everyone needs a good derailing every so often!!
But back on topic, does anyone plan to back Tiger Woods to place? We know he likes the course and if the weather isn't great he may just be able to make a run.
Think there is more chance he misses the cut than gets a top ten. Probably won't bet on that though.
RE: The gambling/betting thread - St Charles Owl - 14-07-2015
So do I but you never know with him, particularly at majors and St Andrews. What are his odds to win anyway?
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 14-07-2015
Tiger Woods
To Win 35/1
First Round Leader 40/1
To Miss Cut 13/8
Top Ten Finish 7/2
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 14-07-2015
Just read the Betfair guide to The Open.
I like it because it backs two of my bets.
Oosterhuizen - not just the most recent Open winner at St Andrews but shot equal best in the Alfred Dunhill St Andrews rounds in 2014 at -14 for two rounds.
Fleetwood - also equal best in Alfred Dunhill for St Andrews rounds at -14 plus -12 in 2013. That is a combined 26 under par for his last four rounds on the course. That is round totals of 65-67-62-68. Reckon that will be enough to win come Sunday.
Some other interesting facts:
Only Jack Nicholas has ever won at St Andrews on The Open when more than two shots off the lead after the first round.
Oosterhuizen is the only St Andrews winner since 1964 not to be a multiple major winner.
St Andrews has 14 par four holes, the most on The Open courses
The last five Open winners all played the Scottish Open the week before The Open.
Only one winner in the last 24 years (Todd Hamilton) played in the States the week before The Open.
Three of the last four winners of The Open were in their 40s.
Only Ben Curtis has won The Open on debut since the 1970s.
This century, 12 of the 15 winners have played at least six previous Open Championships AND finished at least once previously in the Top Six.
So we are looking for a 40+ player who has gone close previously, is a multiple major winner, who is great on links courses , can get off to a flying start and played at the Scottish Open last week.
RE: The gambling/betting thread - consilio - 14-07-2015
Are you looking for the answer to the last bit?
I need to know who to get on......
RE: The gambling/betting thread - Owlkev71 - 14-07-2015
Mickelson?
RE: The gambling/betting thread - St Charles Owl - 14-07-2015
Graeme McDowell fits that bill somewhat as well. Also Padraig Harrington ticks most of the boxes.
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 14-07-2015
Older Players: Mickelson, Westwood, Els, Harrington, Jaidee, Goosen, Bjorn
Gone Close Previously: D Johnson, Fowler, Day, Stenson, Oosterhuizen, Garcia, Casey, Donald, Grace, Westwood, Furyk
Major Winner: Speith, Scott, Oosterhuizen, Rose, Watson, Kaymer, Woods, Mickelson, McDowell, Els, Harrington, Ogilvy, Simpson, Goosen
Top Links Course: Fowler, Oosterhuizen, Lowry, Dubuisson, Fleetwood
Played Scottish Open: Fowler, Rose, Kaymer, Mickelson, Lowry, Dubuisson, Fleetwood, Donald, An, Luiten, McDowell
Current Form: Speith, Fowler, Lee, Fleetwood, Oosterhuizen, Dubuisson
Course Specialists: Fleetwood, Oosterhuizen, Dubuisson, Harrington, Woods, Koepka
I have already had bets on Speith, Oosterhuizen, Fleetwood, Els & Lee. Think I should be adding Dubuisson as well though I doubt he has the temperament to go on & win it but is good each way value for eight places at 80/1.
RE: The gambling/betting thread - Owlkev71 - 15-07-2015
Added Rose, Dubuisson & Tiger (just a £1 e/w) so not financially damaging!
RE: The gambling/betting thread - madsteve - 15-07-2015
(15-07-2015, 13:59)Owlkev71 Wrote: Added Rose, Dubuisson & Tiger (just a £1 e/w) so not financially damaging!
Obviously Dubuisson as I am already on him (could be a bet for top mainland European), Rose is a bit of a serial loser but in theory the course should suit him so is ok each way at the price.
Tiger is a total punt. Think he is more likely to miss the cut than finish top ten but not confident enough to bet big after an improved showing at the Greenbrier.
I am looking at other markets and got 5/1 on Luiten for a Top Twenty finish. Think that is great value as his current form is good & he is a course specialist.