+- Sports Babble - sports forum (https://www.sportsbabble.co.uk)
+-- Forum: Off Topic / General Discussions (https://www.sportsbabble.co.uk/forumdisplay.php?fid=40)
+--- Forum: Abstract Chat (https://www.sportsbabble.co.uk/forumdisplay.php?fid=152)
+--- Thread: On political analysis (/showthread.php?tid=5323)
RE: On political analysis - 0762 - 09-06-2017
The biggest news is it looks like a disastrous election for Theresa May. Is her position untenable if it unfolds in this way? In Scotland, the SNP will be 'wounded' (if exit polls to be believed but some sources in Scotland saying these exit polls omit Scottish seats!!!) but will still be the biggest party based on these exit polls and remember it was not a Scottish govt election! We still have to see what the spread of lost seats actually is and I'm wondering if there has been a 'Corbyn factor' that has taken effect and nothing to do with Dugdale and her SLP leadership and contrary values compared with Corbyn! Also has a decent turnout of young voters had an effect? It's a case of wait n see. IMO this projected general election result will be a disaster for the country and I imagine across the English Channel EU officials like Jean Paul Juncker will be having a private chuckle. Also my reading of this poss result says that a lotta people in the country don't want a 'hard brexit' - no surprise there!!!
RE: On political analysis - St Charles Owl - 09-06-2017
Yes, if this exit poll holds it should be the end of May as leader and would cause potential chaos from a constitutional standpoint if their is no coalition from any quarter to form a government. From a Scotland perspective I would think this would be more than a wounding for the SNP!! I think this will end the independence discussion for a while.
Would you be comfortable with the SNP forming a coalition with the Tories or Labour if the promise of another independence vote is part of the deal??
First SNP seat to fall - Rutherglen and Hamilton West now held by Labour with a small 265 majority.
UKIP vote has predictably collapsed, most of those votes going to the Tories so far but Labour picking up some as well.
Going to be an interesting night!!!
RE: On political analysis - themaclad - 09-06-2017
A truly odd night Tories increase vote lose seats, Labour even with all that free money still don't get a majority, SNP where do they go now but on comedy Clegg and Salmond disappearing from view was worth it.
No idea where we go from here, but Corbyn will not be getting through the door of number 10
RE: On political analysis - St Charles Owl - 09-06-2017
Well, that was unexpected!!! Unprecedented would be a good word for what we have seen in this election. The collapse of the UKIP vote, and the Tories picking up most of that vote meant their actual vote was up yet they lost seats?? Labour were never looking like doing enough to win but boy have they played the role of spoiler superbly in th end. Very disappointing night for the SNP, currently down 21 seats and the loss of two Major figures as well as falling below 40% of the Scottish vote!! The Tories picked up 12 of those seats and Labour picked up 6, not bad for parties who were supposed to be finished in Scotland!! Independence vote has surely just been swept out into the North Sea, lets see if the tide will return it to shore!!
Now we get into really tricky territory, what will happen now?? May surely can't stay and I can't see any party joining with them except the NI parties. On the other side, can't see all the parties coming together to form a differnt coalition either. So do we get a minority government or do we get another election?? Very interesting times ahead!!
RE: On political analysis - hibeejim21 - 09-06-2017
Picking through that the main thing that stands out is labour have done incredibly well under corbyn - up over 10%. They have won seats people said were impossible under a 'hard left' party.
The SNPs slump may well have helped the tories cling on.
May is surely done for,she has derided corbyn from day 1 and has no big majority.
Lib dems nowhere.
(09-06-2017, 07:00)themaclad Wrote: A truly odd night Tories increase vote lose seats, Labour even with all that free money still don't get a majority, SNP where do they go now but on comedy Clegg and Salmond disappearing from view was worth it.
No idea where we go from here, but Corbyn will not be getting through the door of number 10
RE: On political analysis - Ska'dForLife-WBA - 09-06-2017
(09-06-2017, 07:28)St Charles Owl Wrote: Well, that was unexpected!!! Unprecedented would be a good word for what we have seen in this election. The collapse of the UKIP vote, and the Tories picking up most of that vote meant their actual vote was up yet they lost seats?? Labour were never looking like doing enough to win but boy have they played the role of spoiler superbly in th end. Very disappointing night for the SNP, currently down 21 seats and the loss of two Major figures as well as falling below 40% of the Scottish vote!! The Tories picked up 12 of those seats and Labour picked up 6, not bad for parties who were supposed to be finished in Scotland!! Independence vote has surely just been swept out into the North Sea, lets see if the tide will return it to shore!!
Now we get into really tricky territory, what will happen now?? May surely can't stay and I can't see any party joining with them except the NI parties. On the other side, can't see all the parties coming together to form a differnt coalition either. So do we get a minority government or do we get another election?? Very interesting times ahead!!
Basically, the Tories went UKIP-lite thinking they could hoover up votes in England and add to their existing support. But it doesn't work like that. In moving right they were always going to haemorrhage young/liberal/entrepreneur/Remainer support to the Lib Dems, and in turn, I think a lot of leftish Lib Dems went Labour, along with some Kippers who just don't trust the Tories on stuff like the NHS. Plus, credit where it's due, Corbyn seems to have pulled out a big youth vote in places where it mattered.
So where does this leave us? More than likely with a Tory govt propped up by the DUP. A Tory government enabled, you'll note, by a significant number of Scottish constituencies. And this after weeks and weeks of us hearing on this very thread about "the English will give us this", and "the English will give us that".
Time for some looking in the mirror, maybe? Some consideration that the problem doesn't just lie in one country? The idea that (shock, horror!) class conflict may transcend borders and boundaries?
But rest assured, I won't hold my breath on that front.
RE: On political analysis - 0762 - 09-06-2017
Theresa May wins the 'own goal of the season'eh! Also Rupert Murdoch observed storming out of The Times election party after reading the exit polls lol!
RE: On political analysis - spireitematt - 09-06-2017
(09-06-2017, 07:00)themaclad Wrote: A truly odd night Tories increase vote lose seats, Labour even with all that free money still don't get a majority, SNP where do they go now but on comedy Clegg and Salmond disappearing from view was worth it.
No idea where we go from here, but Corbyn will not be getting through the door of number 10
Did you expect Labour to get a majority? I'm a Labour member and I expected a hung parliament or small majority Tory government. May put party before country and it backfired, she didn't need to call an election. As for this free money, Labour's manifesto was fully costed and 130 economists and even Stephen Hawking backed Labour because we needed a different approach other than austerity. Only two countries who have austerity are Greece and us. After WW2 we had austerity and rationing but Germany got back on there feet quicker because they invested in manufacturing, jobs, housing, healthcare. As for Scotland and the SNP a 2nd Indy referendum has been blown into the water.
RE: On political analysis - 0762 - 09-06-2017
A 2nd Indy referendum blown into the water???? You wish!!! The Scottish 'block vote' held firm in Scotland and the SNP won the Scottish vote by a country mile - the SNP still hold more seats than all the opposing parties put together + all SNP votes counted (a huge significant proportion of total votes!) tell me a 2nd Indy ref is alive n kicking but 'patience is a virtue' and the formal conclusion of the Brexit negotiations/cock up will be the 'spark' to seriously activate Scot ref 2!! Also we're talking about a general election with lotsa different narratives attached to it and NOT a Scottish Election where lotsa voters who voted away from the SNP for various reasons yesterday still want an Indy Ref 2 and ultimately independence!! So dream on mate!! The issue is not gonna go away as many unionists hope it will!!!! As for the embarrassed toerag govt led by Theresa May in denial? Being propped up by the most extreme political party in parliament - desperation comes to mind and May is a 'dead woman walking' TBF!! The difference between May's lame post election speech (in denial) and Sturgeon's pragmatic post election comments/summary were 'night n day'!!! Sturgeon far more astute and up front even after a disappointing night when some SNP colleagues have lost their electoral seats. Time to regroup and assure a massive Scottish support out in the country and try to attract many more of the young voters much like Corbyn has achieved.
RE: On political analysis - themaclad - 09-06-2017
(09-06-2017, 12:05)spireitematt Wrote:ALL conjecture now Matt let's see what happens technically a majority of 1 but there is a irony being in power due to Irish terroisn(09-06-2017, 07:00)themaclad Wrote: A truly odd night Tories increase vote lose seats, Labour even with all that free money still don't get a majority, SNP where do they go now but on comedy Clegg and Salmond disappearing from view was worth it.
No idea where we go from here, but Corbyn will not be getting through the door of number 10
Did you expect Labour to get a majority? I'm a Labour member and I expected a hung parliament or small majority Tory government. May put party before country and it backfired, she didn't need to call an election. As for this free money, Labour's manifesto was fully costed and 130 economists and even Stephen Hawking backed Labour because we needed a different approach other than austerity. Only two countries who have austerity are Greece and us. After WW2 we had austerity and rationing but Germany got back on there feet quicker because they invested in manufacturing, jobs, housing, healthcare. As for Scotland and the SNP a 2nd Indy referendum has been blown into the water.
Different approach to austerity spending more money we have not got, that's all past future only to look forward to