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+--- Thread: European Union Referendum - In or Out?? (/showthread.php?tid=2762)
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RE: European Union Referendum - In or Out?? - hibeejim21 - 20-01-2019
"Leave on WTO terms" is a relatively recent argument, I don't remember anyone talking about this back in 2016, when we were told we'd get the best deal ever and leaving the EU would be easy because ze Germans need to sell their cars and the Italians need us for Prosecco sales.
Yet Dominic raab was churning it out today, looks more like he was sabotaging the Brexit talks......
This can either be done the "hard way" or the "easy way".
The former involves a no deal Brexit, which benefits nobody but short selling shits and gimps for vulture capitalists. The "dividend " for the weakest and most vulnerable may well be measured in a decade or more of life shortening pain and disorder. Only a callous shit or utter lunatic thinks that that is a risk worth taking.
The latter means facing up to reality and admitting we made a mistake.
RE: European Union Referendum - In or Out?? - 0762 - 20-01-2019
That is ultimately the whole prob re the political impasse and why there will be no majority for any permutation of brexit because none of these permutations are better than the current one with the EU. Therefore by "hook or by crook" it must go back to the people.
RE: European Union Referendum - In or Out?? - ritchiebaby - 20-01-2019
Just so we know what the possibilities are, does anyone know what the timescales are for either holding a General Election or a second EU Referendum? The default position is that we will be leaving the EU on 29 March, which is less than 10 weeks away. The campaign for the June 2016 Referendum lasted 4 months but General Elections are usually cut and dried after around 6 weeks. Either way, that's far too little time to campaign, get a result, then pass the necessary legislation, even if Mrs May acts right away - and that would be a first!
RE: European Union Referendum - In or Out?? - 0762 - 21-01-2019
The time scale to organise and conclude a 2nd EU referendum can be about 22 weeks. It is reckoned that the EU would be amenable to extend Article 50 if this was an avenue for the UK govt to follow and "break the impasse".
RE: European Union Referendum - In or Out?? - ritchiebaby - 21-01-2019
It's true that the EU would be willing to extend Article 50 in order to make progress, but Theresa will have to ask them first and I wouldn't expect her to do anything sensible like that. I suppose a lot will depend on the amendments being put forward this coming week.
RE: European Union Referendum - In or Out?? - spireitematt - 21-01-2019
She's now looking at amending or re-writing the Good Friday Agreement to get her deal through. Is Trump or Johnson advising her?
I think she's gone mad, this is very very worrying. We are through the looking glass here people.
(20-01-2019, 23:26)ritchiebaby Wrote: Just so we know what the possibilities are, does anyone know what the timescales are for either holding a General Election or a second EU Referendum? The default position is that we will be leaving the EU on 29 March, which is less than 10 weeks away. The campaign for the June 2016 Referendum lasted 4 months but General Elections are usually cut and dried after around 6 weeks. Either way, that's far too little time to campaign, get a result, then pass the necessary legislation, even if Mrs May acts right away - and that would be a first!
6 weeks for a General Election but a referendum takes about 6 months to plan and organise.
RE: European Union Referendum - In or Out?? - 0762 - 21-01-2019
Well Corbyn looks like he'll finally be backing a joint parliamentary motion to block any "no deal" scenario! Lets wait n see as this is now clearly a fluid political situation where both mainstream parties could well commit political suicide if they make the wrong move.
RE: European Union Referendum - In or Out?? - spireitematt - 21-01-2019
(21-01-2019, 00:38)ritchiebaby Wrote: It's true that the EU would be willing to extend Article 50 in order to make progress, but Theresa will have to ask them first and I wouldn't expect her to do anything sensible like that. I suppose a lot will depend on the amendments being put forward this coming week.
The EU will only extend Article 50 for another vote or a General Election but not for anymore negotiations.
There are only 3 options left.
1. 2nd referendum
2. General Election
3. Revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU
In my opinion Option 3 would be a very very bad idea.
Option 2 would lead us to another Hung Parliament and be back to square one and Option 1 would piss a lot of people off if it was 52/48 in Remain's favour and therefore would probably lead us to another Referendum which would have to be 3rd and final one.
RE: European Union Referendum - In or Out?? - ritchiebaby - 21-01-2019
Matt, she seems to be exploring every option except the obvious and sensible ones. It begs a major query on her mental state. I don't like the woman and I don't like her attitude, but the constant drubbings she gets from all sides must be having an effect on that.
(21-01-2019, 00:50)0762 Wrote: Well Corbyn looks like he'll finally be backing a joint parliamentary motion to block any "no deal" scenario! Lets wait n see as this is now clearly a fluid political situation where both mainstream parties could well commit political suicide if they make the wrong move.
There is a No Deal scenario at the moment. Parliament voted to leave the EU on 29 March by a huge majority and passed the necessary legislation to do so. To be honest, we can't afford to wait and see as we need to do something positive to change things.
RE: European Union Referendum - In or Out?? - spireitematt - 21-01-2019
(21-01-2019, 00:50)0762 Wrote: Well Corbyn looks like he'll finally be backing a joint parliamentary motion to block any "no deal" scenario! Lets wait n see as this is now clearly a fluid political situation where both mainstream parties could well commit political suicide if they make the wrong move.
You can't take no deal off the table though because it's pretty much telling the EU we will accept any deal you give us and also it's a legal part in Article 50 that if neither side comes to an agreement then the member state will go to the default option which is fall out the union with no deal. Only way to stop no deal happening is revoke Article 50.